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Mortgage Rates Match Highest Level Since March

5/12/2026 2:28 PM

When the Iran war was in its initial escalation phase, the initial surge in markets took the top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% for the average lender by March 27th. Rates moved more than 0.30% lower by mid April as peace prospect improved.  The third phase of rate movement began in late April and has generally involved a jump back up toward 6...Read More

Best Ex, Equity, Servicing, AI, Valuation Tools; Job Market"s Mixed Signals; Purchase Market Dragging?

5/12/2026 9:52 AM

If you’re hoping that the summer is going to bring a trend of purchase market prosperity, I hope you’re right but there are indications otherwise. Rocket Companies’ CEO reported its highest profit in four years, but CEO Varun Krishna told investors that the company’s real-time data shows the spring homebuying season is not delivering the volume inc...Read More

Slightly Hotter CPI No Problem For Bonds

5/12/2026 8:29 AM

This morning"s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly hotter than expected with core inflation running 2.8% annual vs 2.7% forecasts and overall inflation at 3.8% vs 3.7%. Bonds have traded both ways after the data, but after 20 minutes, yields were actually LOWER by a hair. What gives? We know traders are trading the data based on volume. The...Read More

Over Before it Began

5/11/2026 2:50 PM

Over Before it Began Monday proved to be a boring trading day despite the moderately big sell-off. Yields actually didn"t move much during the domestic session. In fact, they didn"t move during the overnight session either. Because the day"s market-moving news happened on Sunday before trading began, it was...Read More

Mortgage Rates Rising to Start New Week

5/11/2026 2:30 PM

Last week was decidedly stronger for mortgage rates as they either held steady or moved lower on 5 out of 5 days. All told, it was a 0.14% drop from the previous week in terms of the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate.  The new week is starting out in opposite fashion with rates moving up 0.07% today alone. This follows news over the weekend th...Read More

Weaker Start After Peace Deal Stalls

5/11/2026 10:28 AM

Bonds are starting the day moderately weaker. The reasons are straightforward. Chief among them, Trump rejected Iran"s counterproposal to end the war, calling it "totally unacceptable." In response, Iran"s foreign minister said it will never bow to foreign pressure. Adding fuel to the fire, Netanyahu said the war was not over and there was "more wo...Read More

Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back

5/8/2026 2:34 PM

Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back Once or twice per week, the bond market manages to post a fairly calm trading day against the prevailing backdrop of generally higher volatility. Today was such a day. The most helpful catalyst was an absence of any major war-related headlines and asso...Read More

Mortgage Rates End Week Slightly Lower

5/8/2026 12:52 PM

It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the third highest since August 2025. But that ended up being the only day where rates went higher.  Wednesday brough the biggest chunk of the recovery with MND"s daily rate index dropping 0.10%.  ...Read More

Higher Rates Hit Mortgage Apps, But Only Modestly

5/8/2026 11:56 AM

Mortgage applications declined last week, reversing some of the prior period’s gains as rates climbed to their highest level in a month. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 4.4% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 1. The decline was broad-based, with both purchase and refinance activity moving lower. The...Read More

2-Month Glut of Data Brings New Home Sales Back to Center of The Range

5/8/2026 11:30 AM

New home sales moved higher in March and February. Both months were reported on a single day this week as the Census Bureau continues catching up from the government shutdown.  After dropping to 587k in January, sales rose to 635k in February and 682k in March. This represents a solid bounce back into the center of the broadly sideways range ...Read More

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