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War Headlines Cause Mid-Day Reversal

6/10/2026 3:04 PM

War Headlines Cause Mid-Day Reversal Bonds started the day inconsequentially weaker and picked up some gains after CPI came in a hair lower than expected at the core level. Just before noon, yields began rising and ultimately hit the 3pm close up a few bps versus yesterday. MBS were down about an eighth of ...Read More

Mortgage Rates Remain Almost Perfectly Flat

6/10/2026 1:32 PM

There"s been remarkably little change in mortgage rates so far this week. Monday saw a modest increase vs Friday, but since then, there"s been essentially no change. Today"s rates were technically 0.01% lower than yesterday"s, but many lenders were perfectly unchanged. This is an acceptable result given the presence of high stakes economic data an...Read More

Credit, Verification, Database, Retention, Broker Tools; FTC Penalty; Cost of Living Increases

6/10/2026 10:51 AM

“Rob, everyone knows that the GSEs (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) don’t use credit scores for loan approval. They use it for pricing. The GSEs have created their own scoring system and it’s just the investors that utilize the score.” True dat. It takes a while to test the impact of credit scores on defaults, delinquencies, pricing, and prepayment spe...Read More

Slightly Stronger After Ho-Hum CPI

6/10/2026 8:52 AM

Most understand this, but some forget: CPI numbers on econ calendars are not prices. They"re the change in prices. We bring that up in case anyone thinks today"s core monthly CPI of 0.2 means that prices are lower than last month when the core was 0.4. While it"s a decent monthly number and lower than the expected 0.3, it"s also 2.4% if repeated fo...Read More

Bonds End at Strongest Levels

6/9/2026 3:38 PM

Bonds End at Strongest Levels Unlike yesterday, which saw an uneventful open give way to intraday weakness, today"s momentum was mostly friendly. Bonds avoided panicking in the morning hours. Mid-day war-related headlines made for some quick 2-way trading in the noon hour, but yields never went any higher t...Read More

Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Steady

6/9/2026 2:42 PM

Mortgage rates put an end to the most recent spike that followed last Friday"s jobs report. Most of the upward movement happened on Friday, but yesterday offered a modest aftershock. Those two days brought the top tier 30yr fixed rate up to 6.68 from 6.58 on Thursday. Today"s average remained perfectly flat at 6.68%. War-related headlines had peri...Read More

Retention, Appraisal Repurchase Risk, Analytics, Lead Gen Tools; Better Rate vs. Better House?

6/9/2026 10:48 AM

“Rob, have you heard that retail and DTC lenders have stepped up their training and monitoring of loan officers?” Absolutely. The same granular examination that is applied to borrowers is being applied to LOs, and not only with credit checks and background searches. Originators are expensive, as are leads, and the analysis of LO performance is crit...Read More

Another Decent Start, But Will it Last?

6/9/2026 8:51 AM

For the second day in a row , bonds are starting out in modestly stronger territory, but let"s hope we don"t repeat yesterday"s performance. That left yields even higher at the close than they were on Friday afternoon. Today"s overnight gains leave yields in similar territory to yesterday morning. One redeeming technical development is that yields ...Read More

Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery

6/8/2026 4:18 PM

Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight session higher, but both moved to the lows of the day just after 9:30am. From then on, oil went broadly sideways while bonds sold off gradually. If oil had instead moved higher into the afternoon, we mig...Read More

Mortgage Rates Just a Bit Higher After Last Week"s Jump

6/8/2026 3:33 PM

The average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate rose 0.08% last Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Today added another 0.02% of upward movement. Today"s level of 6.68% is the 3rd highest of the past 9 months. Unlike Friday, there were no big-ticket economic reports driving volatility in rate markets. The only arguable ...Read More

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