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Decent Mid-Day Recovery But No Change to Bigger Picture

9/14/2026 2:52 PM

Decent Mid-Day Recovery But No Change to Bigger Picture Monday wasn"t too different from last Friday in that the bond market began the day with AM volatility that gave way to minimally changed yields by the close. The order was reversed, however, with the weaker trading in the AM and rally back to unchanged...Read More

Mortgage Rates Start Higher, But Some Lenders Recovered

9/14/2026 2:19 PM

On average, the top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate moved up to another new long-term high today of 7.17%. You"d have to go back to January, 2025 to see anything higher. That said, there"s more variability than normal today depending on the lender.  Bonds (which dictate rates) were at their weakest levels of the day right around the time most l...Read More

Sep. 14: Verification, Non-QM, Processing, Agentic AI Tools; LOs as Financial Strategists; Equity Study

9/14/2026 10:11 AM

Yes, the college game was amazing Saturday night here in Austin, but there’s also IMN’s HELOCs & Second Liens event. The markets know that it is a hot topic. Do “the markets” care about a $40 trillion U.S. deficit? Yes. Does any politician seem able to curb spending, or be elected to do it? Not really, and in fact over the weekend, House Speake...Read More

Different Week, Same Selling

9/14/2026 9:38 AM

Selling continues to be the path of least resistance for the bond market. Open interest data from Treasury futures suggests Friday"s "short-covering" assessment may not be the only story. Reason being: open interest moved HIGHER (it would be much easier to conclude short-covering drove the move if open interest was lower). The counterpoint is that ...Read More

AM Rally Completely Erased By The Close

9/11/2026 4:29 PM

AM Rally Completely Erased By The Close This morning"s paradoxical rally lasted 30 whole minutes. Bonds turned around at exactly 9am and proceeded to completely erase the AM gains. There were no compelling macro motivations for the reversal apart from a modest rise in oil prices. While oil price lows and hi...Read More

Mortgage Rates Held Fairly Steady Until Late in The Day

9/11/2026 2:24 PM

Looked at in a vacuum, and up until the last few hours of the day, Friday was no better or worse than the average day over the past several months. Compared to yesterday morning"s levels, the average lender was 0.01% higher--a small enough move to be effectively considered "unchanged."  This expanded to 0.05% in the last few hours as multiple ...Read More

Existing Home Sales Dip Below 4 Million as Inventory Builds

9/11/2026 1:35 PM

Existing-home sales slipped in August, falling below the 4 million annualized pace for the first time since June 2025, while a sharp increase in inventory gave buyers more options and pushed the supply of homes to its highest level in more than a decade. The National Association of REALTORS® reported a 2.0% decline in sales from July to a seasona...Read More

Refi Demand Declining Even Before Most Recent Rate Spike

9/11/2026 1:20 PM

Mortgage application activity pulled back last week, with a sharp decline in refinancing more than offsetting relatively stable purchase demand as mortgage rates moved higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending September 4. Purchase applic...Read More

AI Warehouse, Compliance Education Tools; Rocket"s Limits; Who is Prepaying; Inflation = Higher Rates

9/11/2026 10:05 AM

Most of us 30 years old and older have tales about where they were and what they did 25 years ago. Being in capital markets, and selling MBS, for over 40 years, I knew people who died in New York that day. That said, as an industry, we’re very good at looking forward to, and planning for, the future. Minority home ownership is something every major...Read More

Paradoxical Rally in Bonds Thanks to Higher Fed Hike Odds

9/11/2026 8:43 AM

We"ve been saying for a while that the longer end of the bond market really wants to see the Fed get serious about fighting inflation. This is why yields spiked on July 29th when the Fed held rates steady and Warsh said he"d let the bond market do the heavy lifting. Now today, we have back-to-back inflation reports that resulted in Fed Funds Future...Read More

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