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AI Warehouse, Compliance Education Tools; Rocket"s Limits; Who is Prepaying; Inflation = Higher Rates

9/11/2026 10:05 AM

Most of us 30 years old and older have tales about where they were and what they did 25 years ago. Being in capital markets, and selling MBS, for over 40 years, I knew people who died in New York that day. That said, as an industry, we’re very good at looking forward to, and planning for, the future. Minority home ownership is something every major...Read More

Paradoxical Rally in Bonds Thanks to Higher Fed Hike Odds

9/11/2026 8:43 AM

We"ve been saying for a while that the longer end of the bond market really wants to see the Fed get serious about fighting inflation. This is why yields spiked on July 29th when the Fed held rates steady and Warsh said he"d let the bond market do the heavy lifting. Now today, we have back-to-back inflation reports that resulted in Fed Funds Future...Read More

Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data

9/10/2026 3:38 PM

Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data MBS lost nearly a full point by 4pm ET and 10yr yields were up 11.4bps at 4.95%. This is the highest since October 2023 when 10s briefly hit 5.006%.  At one point in the overnight session, yields were slightly LOWER on the day. Things changed in wa...Read More

30yr Fixed Rates Jump to 7.07%

9/10/2026 1:44 PM

You may have seen other headlines today that reference 30yr fixed rates of 6.76%. Those stories would be citing Freddie Mac"s weekly rate survey which is an average of the 5 business days (4 in this case, due to the holiday) ending yesterday (September 9th). Because of that methodology, the number lags reality. Today alone, the average lender move...Read More

Financing, Settlement, Processing Tools; Credit Score Tumult; Treasury Buybacks

9/10/2026 10:43 AM

Here in San Antonio, TX, interest rates are obviously part of mortgage event discussion. (On today’s The Big Picture Guild’s David Battany will be discussing rates and recent developments impacting them with Robbie C. and me.) Here’s what happens when you mix campaign promises, mortgage rates and the markets. Texas is a border state, obviously impa...Read More

Sharply Weaker Again. Half Oil. Half PPI

9/10/2026 8:18 AM

It"s been a rough couple of days for the bond market. Yesterday, it was Bessent and the reaction to the Treasury buyback announcement. Today it is an overnight surge in oil prices and a lackluster reaction to the Producer Price Index (PPI). PPI doesn"t tend to move markets as much as CPI (due out tomorrow), but it certainly can for two reasons: on ...Read More

Bonds to Bessent: Challenge Accepted

9/9/2026 2:52 PM

Bonds to Bessent: Challenge Accepted When the Yellen Treasury rolled out the buyback program in 2023/2024, they were careful to refer to it as strictly focused on liquidity and cash management. If they were secretly interested in influencing the yield curve, we"d never know. Contrast that to Bessent who spe...Read More

Mortgage Rates Jump After New Treasury Buyback Announcement

9/9/2026 2:07 PM

What do mortgage rates have to do with Treasuries? Quite a lot, actually. U.S. Treasuries are the bills and bonds issued by the government. In addition to financing government spending, they are also the lifeblood of the financial system. Due to that central role, their liquidity, the immense size of the market, and because they"re considered to be...Read More

Correspondent, Signing, Multifamily Tools; STRATMOR Tech Survey; Capital Markets; Rocket"s Loan Limits

9/9/2026 10:05 AM

What should we talk about today? Besides TSA bringing back gate access, here’s a leading IMB exec and his wife putting their Florida home on the market for “a pretty penny.” There’s talk at conferences, not only about things being slower than expected in 2026 and potentially even slower in 2027, but also of LO and branch movement. It reminds me of ...Read More

Are Bonds Fighting Oil Implications Thanks to Buyback Hopes?

9/9/2026 9:30 AM

Not much is going on in terms of scheduled economic events until Thursday and Friday"s PPI and CPI reports respectively. Those could be very big deals as some investors think the results will determine "hike vs hold" at next week"s Fed meeting. Today"s biggest to-do is probably the 11am announcement of the next round of Treasury buybacks. Treasury ...Read More

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