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Lowest Initial Jobless Claims Reading Since 2022

12/4/2025 7:53 AM

Bonds were already slightly weaker in the overnight session, but the Jobless Claims data won"t be any help.  Initial claims fell to 191k--the lowest they"ve been since 2022 and one of the lowest readings since the 1960s. An isolated extreme in weekly data isn"t worth as much market drama as a similarly extreme result in something like the big ...Read More

Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally

12/3/2025 3:33 PM

Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally Who knows how today would have ended up if the relevant econ data had come in stronger than expected. Perhaps that would have been enough to see an earlier, more threatening sell-off in bonds. As it stands, we"re heading out the door with moderate gains, even if we...Read More

Mortgage Rates Back Down Near Recent Lows

12/3/2025 3:02 PM

Mortgage rates improved more noticeably today, and while the average rate isn"t quite as low as it was last week, it"s fairly close.  Rates are based on movement in the bond market. Bonds were most likely to move in response to one or both of today"s big economic reports.  Oddly enough, most of the bond market improvement was seen overni...Read More

DPA, DSCR Processing, Buy Before you Sell Products; FDM/AHM Partnership; LOs & MISMO

12/3/2025 10:42 AM

Both Dick Van Dyke and Mel Brooks turn 100, Dick in less than two weeks and Mel next summer. 100 years is a long time, and it’s a big number. Despite faster economic growth than peers, the U.S. faces rising deficits and debt levels above 100 percent of GDP. If this impacts our debt ratings further, look out. Political gridlock and reluctance to ena...Read More

Stronger Start, Mostly Before ADP Data

12/3/2025 7:37 AM

10yr yields are almost 4bps lower in early trading and the ADP employment report came in at -32k vs a +10k forecast. The logical conclusion would be that the data is responsible for the rally, but there was actually a remarkably light reaction to the data, both in terms of volume and volatility.  Most of the gains arrived between 6am and 7:30a...Read More

Steady Gains Throughout The Day

12/2/2025 3:02 PM

Steady Gains Throughout The Day Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory although MBS were fairly quick to get back to "unchanged" while 10yr Treasuries couldn"t duplicate that feat until the afternoon. There were no clear correlations with other markets and no notable risks on the econ calendar. Th...Read More

Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Lower

12/2/2025 2:33 PM

Unlike Monday, which saw a fairly brisk move toward higher rates, Tuesday barely budged. Additionally, the budging occurred in a friendly direction with the average lender offering rates that were just a hair lower than yesterday"s.  Starting tomorrow morning, this week"s potential volatility will be higher. Each day brings several economic r...Read More

Jumbo, Processing, AI, 2nd Products; Current State of M&A and Partnerships

12/2/2025 10:44 AM

I don’t know about you, but a hot shower or bath always sounds good. Tech wizards, however, have created a human washing machine. I’ll pass. At this point it would be impossible to do a home loan without “technology,” and AI is all the rage. For those trying to figure out how to think about AI, or even where to start, this month’s STRATMOR piece is...Read More

MBS Outperforming Longer-Term Treasuries

12/2/2025 9:49 AM

The early days of a new trading month and the positioning ahead of next week"s Fed announcement have resulted in clear curve trading biases.  In English, this means that shorter-term Treasuries are doing much better than longer-term Treasuries.  For example, 2yr yields are down 2.4bps while 10yr yields are up 1.1bps. This dynamic is usual...Read More

Complete Silence After AM Volatility

12/1/2025 3:04 PM

Complete Silence After AM Volatility Bonds were mostly flat overnight before a sharp sell-off from 8am through 10am ET. After that, momentum went flat again--especially the last 4 hours of trading.  No one is still debating whether or not the AM sell-off was due to Japan"s central bank news or a p...Read More

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