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| Why Bonds Sold Off Despite Weaker Jobs Report | ||
| 10/2/2026 3:42 PM | ||
| Why Bonds Sold Off Despite Weaker Jobs Report First off, read the AM commentary if you haven"t already. This recap doesn"t add much to that (but the video adds a lot). Bottom line, NFP was weaker, but that was the worst of the news. The unrounded unemployment rate barely budged and it would have moved LOWER...Read More | ||
| Higher Rates Sapped Mortgage Demand, Surprising No One | ||
| 10/2/2026 3:09 PM | ||
| Mortgage demand shocked no one by declining last week as mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in nearly three years. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 6% drop in total mortgage application volume for the week ending September 25. Both sides of the market moved lower, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index falling 4...Read More | ||
| Home Prices Keep Climbing, Just Not Everywhere | ||
| 10/2/2026 2:44 PM | ||
| Home prices picked up a little more speed in July, as both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed stronger annual appreciation than in their previous readings. The gains remain relatively modest by historical standards, and while nominal prices are still moving higher nationally, the picture looks considerably less...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates End Higher Despite Promising Start | ||
| 10/2/2026 2:03 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates rose 0.04% today to an index value of 7.57% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario for the average lender today. That uptick in and of itself isn"t especially large, but it"s a bit counterintuitive on a day where the hotly anticipated jobs report came in much weaker than expected. The jobs report has 2 key components: Nonfarm Payr...Read More | ||
| LOS, Database, Equity, Retention Tools; UAD 3.6 Thoughts; Home Prices vs. Inflation; Weak Jobs Data | ||
| 10/2/2026 10:29 AM | ||
| “A clear conscience is usually the sign of a bad memory.” How’s your memory of rates, and what you did when they moved higher? 30-year mortgage rates were about at this level, briefly, exactly three years ago, but before that we weren’t here since the late 1990’s when they were at these levels for a long time. How many of your sales staff were in t...Read More | ||
| Why Bonds Aren"t More Excited About The Jobs Report | ||
| 10/2/2026 8:36 AM | ||
| MBS are up more than 3/8ths and the 10yr is down almost 6bps at the lowest levels in a week after the job count came in at 29k vs 90k f"cast. That"s the good news. But if it seems like the rally should be bigger for such a hotly anticipated report, there"s a reason. First off, we need to remember that it takes fewer jobs created to keep unemploymen...Read More | ||
| Thursday"s Rally Sets Up For a Very Interesting Friday | ||
| 10/1/2026 3:46 PM | ||
| Thursday"s Rally Sets Up For a Very Interesting Friday Of course we had to have a big, interesting move in the bond market on the day before an economic report also famous for causing big, interesting moves. On such occasions, if Friday delivers on "interesting" it will either negate today"s bullishness or ...Read More | ||
| Solid Mid-Day Recovery For Rates | ||
| 10/1/2026 3:09 PM | ||
| It"s a rarity these days, but mortgage rates actually moved lower today by more than a token amount. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell to 7.54% from 7.60% yesterday. There are multiple potential factors in play when it comes to explaining the underlying bond market rally, but none of them stand out as an obvious singular motivation. For th...Read More | ||
| eNote, Non-Agency, Spec Pay-Up, Processing, Hedging Tools; UAD 3.6 Paused; Agency Pricing Changes | ||
| 10/1/2026 10:18 AM | ||
| Welcome to the 4th quarter. Remember when, in 2024, the informal slogan for many in our biz was, “Stay alive ‘til ’25!”? (’27 isn’t expected to be heaven.) This is the month of Halloween. Suddenly residential lending is filled with tricks or treats, along with conferences of varying value. People are on the move: the jobs section of this Commentary...Read More | ||
| No Love From October So Far, But The Day"s Not Over | ||
| 10/1/2026 9:35 AM | ||
| Sometimes we see a distinct shift in momentum on the first day of a new month. This is not one of those times. October 1st picks up where September 30th left off with more yield curve steepening (2yr and 10yr yield getting farther apart). This is a reflection of the sudden shift in economic data expectations last Wednesday combined with the fact th...Read More | ||
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