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Big Bad Day For Bonds. What"s Next?

3/2/2026 2:41 PM

Big Bad Day For Bonds. What"s Next? Bonds sold off early and aggressively on Monday in a move that most onlookers are quickly attributing to geopolitics. Specifically, the thought is that higher oil prices imply higher inflation and, thus, higher rates. While some traders probably woke up and decided to sel...Read More

Mortgage Rates Jump Back Into The 6"s

3/2/2026 2:19 PM

Mortgage rates began the new week with a fairly quick jump back into the low 6% range (top tier 30yr fixed rate for the average lender). With the news cycle very focused on developments in Iran, most coverage attempts to correlate geopolitical events with market movement. The only legitimate way to do this would be to say that upward pressure on o...Read More

HELOC, AI/Compliance, eNote Products; Skiing and AI Events/Training; Capital Markets

3/2/2026 10:54 AM

In what seems to be the blink of an eye we’re down two months of 2026, and by most accounts they were decent for lenders and vendors. Here in Ft. Lauderdale at the Lenders One Summit, the talk in the hallways, like that at several recent conferences, is centered around a handful of topics, M&A being one of them, and the desire for companies to ...Read More

March Starts Sharply Weaker. Is it Iran?

3/2/2026 8:33 AM

Spoiler alert: it"s not Iran. And this morning"s yields are the 2nd lowest in more than 3 months behind last Friday. Last Friday was also a month-end trading day with a mini snowball rally that defied overt explanation (apart from "month end bond buying")--a fact that led us to warn about the risk of "new month bond selling."  It"s not that bo...Read More

Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close

2/27/2026 3:24 PM

Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close Bonds ended the week/month at their strongest levels with 10yr yields breaking below the 4.0% floor to close at 3.95+.  In addition to the low outright levels, the journey was accomplished with minimal volatility along the way. This is potentially surpr...Read More

Mortgage Rates End Week at Best Levels

2/27/2026 12:56 PM

At this point, it is getting a bit repetitive to bring up "the lowest rates in more than 3 years"--something that was officially the case twice this week. If we give rates credit for stably holding these long-term lows (and we should!), then every day this week has been the best in more than 3 years. Here"s the specific record: at no other time in...Read More

Mortgage Demand Calm Before The Storm?

2/27/2026 12:27 PM

Mortgage application activity edged ever-so-slightly higher last week, with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reporting an increase of 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending February 20. Refi applications continue to do the heavy lifting. The Refinance Index increased 4% from the previous week and was 150% higher than t...Read More

Home Prices Still Rising, But Pace Remains Subdued

2/27/2026 12:10 PM

Home price appreciation pulled back slightly at the end of last year, according to December data from both FHFA and S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller. The reports reinforce the message that prices continued to appreciate modestly through the end of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index shows home prices up 1.8% year-over-year in the f...Read More

Fraud, Processing, Verification Waterfall Products; Fairway and Insurance; Conv. Conforming Changes

2/27/2026 10:17 AM

Can’t you feel the anticipation building? March 5th… Trigger leads… Don’t tell me that you’ve forgotten all about it. When a borrower applies for a mortgage and their credit is pulled, that data has historically been sold as a “trigger lead” and dozens of calls are received. Starting March 5, according to the law, credit bureaus can no longer sell ...Read More

Starting Out Under 4.0% Despite Hotter PPI

2/27/2026 8:29 AM

We"d already discussed the fact that PPI has fallen by the wayside as a relevant market mover for bonds despite one or two instances of relevance nearly 2 years ago when bonds were desperate for any hints of change. Today"s PPI results and the ensuing bond market movement leave no doubt as to the relevance of this data. Spoiler alert: there"s basic...Read More

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