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| How Technical Do You Want to Be? | ||
| 7/24/2026 2:38 PM | ||
| How Technical Do You Want to Be? There are always multiple technical lenses through which to view market movement, but the simplest involve trendlines and level lines. Yield movement has largely held inside the same high/low trendlines since October 2025, so that"s a useful trend to keep tabs on the big pic...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Recover Modestly From Long-Term Highs | ||
| 7/24/2026 2:06 PM | ||
| If you"re just tuning in, mortgage rates had a rough day yesterday on top of a rough week overall. The result was the highest 30yr fixed rate in over a year with our index moving up to 6.85%. As has been and continues to be the case, rate momentum has been strongly correlated with oil/gas price momentum. With that in mind, it"s no surprise to see ...Read More | ||
| New Home Sales Regain Some Lost Ground | ||
| 7/24/2026 12:17 PM | ||
| New home sales rebounded modestly in June, recovering some of the previous month"s decline, though activity remained below year-ago levels as elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges continued to weigh on demand. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rat...Read More | ||
| Refis Take a Back Seat as Purchase Demand Rebounds | ||
| 7/24/2026 12:04 PM | ||
| Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as stronger home purchase demand offset a modest decline in refinancing, even with borrowing costs climbing to their highest level since last August. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.9% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July ...Read More | ||
| AI, Non-QM Products; Deep Dive on AI; Morgan Stanley Interview on Risk | ||
| 7/24/2026 10:40 AM | ||
| Odds are, anything you buy was transported using diesel fuel, the price of which has shot up after Russia banned exports of it, impacting farmers, trains, trucks… kind of nearly everything. Today is “Pie and Beer” Day in Utah, aka Pioneer Day, and having parades is costly. It was also celebrated last year, and the year before, and the year before. ...Read More | ||
| Token Support in Bonds After Oil Drops Overnight | ||
| 7/24/2026 8:56 AM | ||
| It"s a straightforward morning in the bond market. We"re not seeing any of the sorts of "unseen hand" trading that accounted for the timing of yesterday"s pre-market weakness. We simply have oil prices erasing about half of yesterday"s rise. Bond yields are trying their best to be able to say the same, but they"re not recovering quite as much ...Read More | ||
| Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives | ||
| 7/23/2026 3:55 PM | ||
| Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives Oil lurched higher again overnight which kept generalized pressure on the bond market and the Fed rate outlook. The nearness to long-term highs had traders feeling very reluctant to step in and "buy the dip" in bond prices. This is the kind of move you"d rather see pla...Read More | ||
| Highest Rates in Over a Year, But There"s a Silver Lining | ||
| 7/23/2026 12:41 PM | ||
| Mortgage moved higher today, and while the jump was no larger than the one seen on Monday, both were "above average" and both took rates in the wrong direction. In addition, the steady weakness throughout the month of July finally resulted in yesterday"s rates match the highest level in nearly a year. In other words, it wouldn"t have taken m...Read More | ||
| Hedging, VantageScore 4.0, AI Accounting, Non-QM, Reverse Products; Higher Oil, Higher Rates | ||
| 7/23/2026 10:28 AM | ||
| There are only twelve (12) legislative days left until the November election, and today on The Big Picture attorney Mitch Kider and I will discuss what that means for lenders as well as other regulatory topics. Rates aren’t doing much. Deals continue to happen as the big get bigger (the latest example being Union Home buying AmeriTrust to shoot for...Read More | ||
| Bearish Breakout For All The Normal Reasons | ||
| 7/23/2026 8:23 AM | ||
| Welcome to post-Iran-War 2026. The only real relief for bonds since then was seen in June when there was hope that the war was over or at least winding down. Gas prices are back to multi-year highs. Inflation fears are back at the forefront. Even the ECB is flagging rate hike risks that could play out by the end of the year. This morning is se...Read More | ||
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