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More War. More Selling

9/1/2026 3:50 PM

More War. More Selling Tuesday was as straightforward as it was unpleasant for the bond market. Mid-day news regarding new air strikes in Iran caused an immediate reaction in oil prices. This was more than enough to reverse the rally that followed this morning"s 10am ET economic data. Oil prices hit the hig...Read More

Mortgage Rates Pushing New Long-Term Highs

9/1/2026 3:02 PM

Fighting intensified today between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices moved higher fairly quickly and bond yields followed. This has been a common pattern during the Iran war as higher oil prices imply higher inflation which, in turn, implies higher yields/rates. Yesterday"s average top-tier 30yr fixed rate hit the highest levels since June 2025. Today...Read More

2nd Lien Reverse, Conversion, Settlement Tools; Bill Cosgrove on Consolidation; Agency News

9/1/2026 10:50 AM

I don’t know where August went, but it went somewhere. We’re now two thirds of the way through the 3rd quarter of 2026. Lenders and vendors are adapting to a lackluster homebuying “season,” stubborn rates, and origination costs around $11k per loan. Lenders are trying to drive that cost down through higher pull through. Labor Day is next Monday, an...Read More

Selling Continues And It"s Not Just Oil

9/1/2026 8:45 AM

Bond yields broke long term highs yesterday and are moving slightly higher again today. In both cases, we"re NOT seeing the same level of intraday correlation with oil prices that we"ve almost always seen on days without another compelling motivation for bonds. That said, oil prices still moved higher, so we can"t discount its impact. If we zo...Read More

Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse

8/31/2026 4:00 PM

Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse 10yr yields closed just under 4.74 at the end of July and just over 4.75% today. That"s the highest close since January 2025 which, at first glance, sounds pretty gloomy. But it"s worth noting that several days have ended just a bp or two below today"s le...Read More

Highest Mortgage Rates in Over a Year, But Just Barely

8/31/2026 3:02 PM

Bonds lost ground today, largely due to mechanical, month-end trading (i.e. not due to economic data, inflation, or news headlines). When bonds lose ground, rates rise, all else equal. Mortgage rates were already fairly close to longer-term highs last week. Today"s increase was just enough to nudge the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.87%--th...Read More

MERS, Reno, Processing Tools; STRATMOR on Borrower Behavior; Housing Supply, Capital Markets

8/31/2026 9:34 AM

Grammar is important. Let’s not forget the comma… the difference between “I want you to eat, my friend” and “I want you to eat my friend.” Let’s not forget training, and I received this note. “Rob, plenty of conferences offer continuing education. Do any organizations offer CE?” Yup. Lenders One members receive it as a free benefit for all their LO...Read More

Month-End Trading Taking a Toll

8/31/2026 9:13 AM

Bonds were actually a hair stronger at the open, but quickly tanked just after 8am. The nature of said tankage is strongly suggestive of month-end positioning. While it"s true oil prices are higher than Friday, the spike in bond yields didn"t correlate in a manner typically consistent with oil being the driver. Also, there is a relatively sharp mov...Read More

Warsh Speech at Jackson Hole Prompts Heavy Selling

8/28/2026 4:22 PM

Hawkish Read on Warsh Prompts Heavy Selling Jackson Hole speeches are hit and miss when it comes to bond market volatility. Today"s Warsh speech was something of a direct hit--more than enough to sink the battleship of anyone hoping for lower rates to end the week. Warsh"s hawkishness was limited to tough t...Read More

Mortgage Rates Jump to 3-Week Highs After Jackson Hole Speech

8/28/2026 1:45 PM

Jackson Hole is a place in Wyoming, but it"s also shorthand for an annual event where various central bankers get together and talk about monetary policy. The Fed Chair almost always delivers a speech and that speech occasionally causes volatility in the bond market. This year was a classic example. Fed Chair Warsh"s speech focused on inflation re...Read More

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