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AM Rally Completely Erased By The Close

9/11/2026 4:29 PM

AM Rally Completely Erased By The Close This morning"s paradoxical rally lasted 30 whole minutes. Bonds turned around at exactly 9am and proceeded to completely erase the AM gains. There were no compelling macro motivations for the reversal apart from a modest rise in oil prices. While oil price lows and hi...Read More

Mortgage Rates Held Fairly Steady Until Late in The Day

9/11/2026 2:24 PM

Looked at in a vacuum, and up until the last few hours of the day, Friday was no better or worse than the average day over the past several months. Compared to yesterday morning"s levels, the average lender was 0.01% higher--a small enough move to be effectively considered "unchanged."  This expanded to 0.05% in the last few hours as multiple ...Read More

Existing Home Sales Dip Below 4 Million as Inventory Builds

9/11/2026 1:35 PM

Existing-home sales slipped in August, falling below the 4 million annualized pace for the first time since June 2025, while a sharp increase in inventory gave buyers more options and pushed the supply of homes to its highest level in more than a decade. The National Association of REALTORS® reported a 2.0% decline in sales from July to a seasona...Read More

Refi Demand Declining Even Before Most Recent Rate Spike

9/11/2026 1:20 PM

Mortgage application activity pulled back last week, with a sharp decline in refinancing more than offsetting relatively stable purchase demand as mortgage rates moved higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending September 4. Purchase applic...Read More

AI Warehouse, Compliance Education Tools; Rocket"s Limits; Who is Prepaying; Inflation = Higher Rates

9/11/2026 10:05 AM

Most of us 30 years old and older have tales about where they were and what they did 25 years ago. Being in capital markets, and selling MBS, for over 40 years, I knew people who died in New York that day. That said, as an industry, we’re very good at looking forward to, and planning for, the future. Minority home ownership is something every major...Read More

Paradoxical Rally in Bonds Thanks to Higher Fed Hike Odds

9/11/2026 8:43 AM

We"ve been saying for a while that the longer end of the bond market really wants to see the Fed get serious about fighting inflation. This is why yields spiked on July 29th when the Fed held rates steady and Warsh said he"d let the bond market do the heavy lifting. Now today, we have back-to-back inflation reports that resulted in Fed Funds Future...Read More

Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data

9/10/2026 3:38 PM

Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data MBS lost nearly a full point by 4pm ET and 10yr yields were up 11.4bps at 4.95%. This is the highest since October 2023 when 10s briefly hit 5.006%.  At one point in the overnight session, yields were slightly LOWER on the day. Things changed in wa...Read More

30yr Fixed Rates Jump to 7.07%

9/10/2026 1:44 PM

You may have seen other headlines today that reference 30yr fixed rates of 6.76%. Those stories would be citing Freddie Mac"s weekly rate survey which is an average of the 5 business days (4 in this case, due to the holiday) ending yesterday (September 9th). Because of that methodology, the number lags reality. Today alone, the average lender move...Read More

Financing, Settlement, Processing Tools; Credit Score Tumult; Treasury Buybacks

9/10/2026 10:43 AM

Here in San Antonio, TX, interest rates are obviously part of mortgage event discussion. (On today’s The Big Picture Guild’s David Battany will be discussing rates and recent developments impacting them with Robbie C. and me.) Here’s what happens when you mix campaign promises, mortgage rates and the markets. Texas is a border state, obviously impa...Read More

Sharply Weaker Again. Half Oil. Half PPI

9/10/2026 8:18 AM

It"s been a rough couple of days for the bond market. Yesterday, it was Bessent and the reaction to the Treasury buyback announcement. Today it is an overnight surge in oil prices and a lackluster reaction to the Producer Price Index (PPI). PPI doesn"t tend to move markets as much as CPI (due out tomorrow), but it certainly can for two reasons: on ...Read More

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