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Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes
4/2/2026 2:54 PM
Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes Bonds were weaker to start the day with oil prices moving sharply higher after last night"s Trump speech. But a few hours into the trading session, the move was completely erased and reversed after some fairly simple headlines regarding Iran/Oman working on a resolution to o...Read More
 
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Lower This Week
4/2/2026 2:12 PM
On any given Thursday, there"s a decent enough chance that the average mortgage rate headline will be unintentionally misleading. At issue is media reliance on the longstanding weekly mortgage rate surveys. If news stories are going to cite this data, that"s fine, but it"s critical to understand the methodology. Whether it"s MBA (reported yesterda...Read More
 
Social Security, Equity, Processing Tools; Freddie and Fannie Shifts; Release From Conservatorship Slim
4/2/2026 10:43 AM
“Rob, what do you hear about Fannie & Freddie being released from conservatorship?” Not much. Although it may change with one random tweet, the idea & process of jettisoning them is not even “on the back burner”… It may be back in the refrigerator. Maybe 2031? Both are certainly building up their net worth, but they don’t have enough capita...Read More
 
Trump Speech Fuels Another Leg Up For Oil and Yields
4/2/2026 8:11 AM
Things don"t always happen like you"d expect. There was some buzz yesterday in the run up to yesterday night"s Trump speech. Even during the domestic trading day, we knew the speech would offer some touting of accomplishments and a reiteration that objectives were "nearly complete." Both of those things happened, but the speech also promised forcef...Read More
 
Surprisingly Light Volatility
4/1/2026 3:07 PM
Surprisingly Light Volatility Bonds digested several big ticket economic reports as well as a host of war-related headlines that probably would have caused a much bigger reaction a few weeks ago. But the net effect was an almost perfectly flat day by the 3pm CME close. If anything, the data caused some weak...Read More
 
Mortgage Rates Steady to Slightly Lower
4/1/2026 2:14 PM
Mortgage rates were little-changed on Wednesday, despite the release of several economic reports and another deluge of war-related headlines. In the slightly bigger picture, the market is trading with some sense of hope of a finite timeline for the war. Today, that meant a moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields (aka "rates"). Bonds struggled ...Read More
 
Another Big Drop in Refi Demand, But Still Higher Year Over Year
4/1/2026 1:58 PM
Mortgage applications fell  for the third consecutive week amid an increasingly volatile rate environment. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of 10.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 27. The Refinance Index fell 17% from the previous week, but remains 33% higher than the same week one ye...Read More
 
Community Dev., Non-Del Non-QM, Hedging Products; Credit News; Capital Markets
4/1/2026 10:40 AM
Time flies, Apple turns 50 today, the first quarter is in the books, and here in Northern Nevada, like everywhere, lenders are watching trends and technology. There are all kinds of lists out there, but for those who prefer the CFPB’s data, there’s HMDA Market Share Dashboards for Origination Statistics. In terms of technology, there’s always somet...Read More
 
Data and War Headlines Erase Overnight Gains
4/1/2026 8:38 AM
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session after Trump said the US may exit the war soon. Those gains have been more than erased (just barely) after this morning"s data. Both ADP and Retail Sales were stronger than expected although it should be noted that Retail Sales is for the month of February in this case. New Trump headlines also added t...Read More
 
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
3/31/2026 3:28 PM
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion Q1 was fairly eventful for the bond market with solid--sometimes puzzling--gains in February followed by a relative rout in March. Heavy quarter-end rebalancing flows are making for more volatility than normal at 4pm ET, but up until that point, 10yr yie...Read More




Small Business Stories from New York Times:
 
How A.I. Helped One Man (and His Brother) Build a $1.8 Billion Company
4/2/2026 4:02 AM
Who needs more than two employees when artificial intelligence can do so many corporate tasks? It’s super efficient — and a little bit lonely...Read More
 
All the Worst People Seem to Want to Be ‘High Agency’
4/2/2026 2:16 PM
The term “high agency” is an ethos for a gambler’s time...Read More
 
A New Jersey Teen Finds Treasure, and More, in Abandoned Storage Units
3/31/2026 3:19 PM
Michael Haskell, 17, set out to make some money from his locker dives. He ended up learning about life...Read More
 
A Guardian of the Past Takes His Treasures Online
3/22/2026 4:00 AM
Louis Bofferding has an intimate feel for rare antiques with dramatic back stories. But his wealthy clients are content to point and click...Read More
 
Kickstarter’s C.E.O. on Running a Fully Remote Company With a Four-Day Workweek
3/1/2026 4:01 AM
Everette Taylor took over Kickstarter at a low moment for the crowdfunding pioneer, which made its name with small projects but now attracts major multinationals and celebrities...Read More



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