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Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration

6/23/2026 3:17 PM

Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration Tuesday may as well have been a holiday. Volumes were among the lowest for any day in weeks and the lowest for a Tuesday in several months. The economic calendar was effectively empty and news/headlines had no discernible impact. There was token improvement in the AM ...Read More

Rates Hold Mostly Steady Despite Bond Market Improvement

6/23/2026 2:31 PM

Mortgage rates may be based directly on the bond market, but the two don"t always move in perfect lock-step. Today was a good example of that. Bonds improved enough for rates to move modestly lower according to typical correlation. Instead, the average mortgage lender improved by the smallest possible amount that we register on our daily rate index...Read More

HELOC, Verification Products; AI Gap; Housing Bill Advances; JPMorganChase on Affordability

6/23/2026 10:44 AM

Yesterday I published a link to Pennymac Policy Pulse, a newsletter tracking key federal policy developments shaping the housing market and broader U.S. economy. The link went to an old version; above is the link to the most current. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Equifax, a global data, analytics, and te...Read More

Re-Coupling and Range Consolidation

6/23/2026 8:58 AM

Yesterday"s most interesting development was the visible decoupling of bond yields with oil prices. To a lesser extent, one could also lament that mid-morning stock selling failed to benefit bonds, but that"s far from a regular correlation these days. In fact, the stock/bond correlation is often reversed when the market is adjusting Fed rate expect...Read More

What"s Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.?

6/22/2026 3:49 PM

What"s Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.? On the average trading day in the past few months, if oil prices were down, and especially if other bond markets were rallying, U.S. bonds were probably rallying too.  Today was the opposite and there are no glaringly obvious reasons. It"s the sort of tra...Read More

Mortgage Rates Bounce Back Toward Recent Highs

6/22/2026 2:57 PM

Mortgage rates gave back the improvement seen last Thursday and broke above last Wednesday"s levels to hit the highest mark since June 10th. This isn"t a big range in the bigger picture, but it does leave rates near 10-month highs. The move is also a bit counterintuitive given developments in other markets and typical correlations. For instance, O...Read More

Verification Letter, AI Compliance, Retention, Decisioning Tools; Fix-and-Flip Trends

6/22/2026 10:49 AM

Pennymac has released the latest edition of its Pennymac Policy Pulse, a newsletter tracking key federal policy developments shaping the housing market and broader U.S. economy. When national or state-level organizations engage in advocacy, they don’t visit the NAR or home builders or large title companies. They visit state legislators, Congress, o...Read More

Bonds Starting Weaker Despite Lower Oil and EU Bond Recovery

6/22/2026 8:59 AM

European bond yields surged higher on Friday in response to political uncertainty in the U.K., among other things (ongoing global reaction to Fed day and U.S./Iran peace deal status, etc). Treasury yields were set to open higher in the overnight session as a result. All of the above is logical and fairly boring. What"s interesting is that Treasurie...Read More

Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week

6/18/2026 2:19 PM

Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week With markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday on Friday, Thursday marked the end of the trading week. Considering the sell-off on Wednesday afternoon, the week had the potential to end on an uncomfortably volatile note. Instead, bonds pushed ba...Read More

Mortgage Rates Stage Decent Recovery of Post-Fed Losses

6/18/2026 11:46 AM

Mortgage rates spiked yesterday after the Fed announcement. The primary driver was the Fed"s revised outlook for potential rate hikes later this year. Because the Fed Funds Rate governs ultra-short-term transactions (24hrs or less), it has the biggest impact on the shortest-term debt and a diminishing impact on longer term debt. While the typical ...Read More

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