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Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher

11/19/2025 3:23 PM

Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher As expected, the recent raft of hawkish Fed speakers foreshadowed (whether intentionally or coincidentally) a hawkish message in today"s Fed minutes. At issue: "many" meeting participants felt that a December cut would NOT likely be justified as opposed to "several" who disagr...Read More

Rates Mostly Steady, But Some Signs of Trouble in The Afternoon

11/19/2025 2:19 PM

It was a complicated day for mortgage rates.  Officially, at the time of this article, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate is a hair lower than it was yesterday.  But rates are based on bonds and bonds are telling a different story. In the wake of the release of the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting, bonds lost ground. This impli...Read More

QC Report, Relationship, Mobile Lock Tools; Zillow and ChatGPT; PHH Reverse Mortgage Sale to FAR

11/19/2025 10:41 AM

As I type these words, I am sitting in front of one of Chuck Berry’s early residences in St. Louis. STL has a good musical reputation, a fine mortgage association, a Fed that puts out great research, and has many nice neighborhoods. But to call this specific area where I am sitting a “transitional” neighborhood would be generous. Although there is ...Read More

Yields Following Stocks Higher; Fed Minutes on Deck

11/19/2025 9:11 AM

Correlation between stocks and bonds is hit and miss depending on other factors. Before the age of more aggressive Fed intervention, it was more common to see yields move in concert with stocks. These days, Fed accommodation expectations can result in the opposite correlation.  That said, there are still times when the old school "stock lever"...Read More

Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility

11/18/2025 3:46 PM

Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility With only a few exceptions, bonds have been a rudderless ship during the government shutdown. With the backlogged data returning in a slow and uncertain fashion, rudder repairs are similarly slow. In today"s case, bonds benefited from overnight strength in overseas bond...Read More

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Yet Again as Data Returns

11/18/2025 3:11 PM

With economic data being the most consistent source of motivation for rates, the market has been eager for it to return with the reopening of the government. While some higher profile reports have been rescheduled for the coming days (i.e. on Thursday, we"ll get the jobs report that we were supposed to get in early October), most updated release da...Read More

AVM, Marketing, Tax Service, Blockchain Tools; Deep Dive on Lisa Cook and Alleged Fraud; Capital Markets

11/18/2025 10:44 AM

Supposedly commercial air travel is back to normal, good for anyone coming in for the Mortgage Bankers Association of St. Louis event tomorrow and Thursday’s Mortgage Bankers Association of Kansas City annual luncheon. Speaking of Missouri, the Pony Express ran between St. Joseph and Sacramento for 18 months in 1860–1861, put out of business by the...Read More

Bonds Buy The Dip Regardless of AM Data

11/18/2025 9:22 AM

We"ve seen a clumsy, confused return of various economic reports this morning (several reports were no previously announced with rescheduled release dates). Thankfully, the surprise releases were not big-ticket items. The most relevant report of the morning was ADP"s new weekly job count ("NER Pulse") which showed another decline. By the time it ca...Read More

Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform

11/17/2025 3:07 PM

Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform In the bigger picture, bonds were flat on Monday without any major volatility in either direction. But if we break out the microscope, we find longer-term Treasuries rallying modestly while MBS lost 1 tick by the 3pm close. In today"s case, the MBS underperformance is mos...Read More

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady to Begin New Week

11/17/2025 2:33 PM

The bond market (which dictates rates) was roughly unchanged over the weekend. As such, it"s no surprise to see mortgage rates right in line with Friday"s latest levels. For the average lender, this means conventional 30yr fixed rates are at the upper boundary of a narrow range stretch back to September 4th. It was the September 5th jobs report th...Read More

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