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Range Breakout Intensifies. Chicken or Egg?

1/20/2026 3:52 PM

Range Breakout Intensifies. Chicken or Egg? After months spent observing the same old range in the bond market, we"re finally in the throes of a confirmed breakout. Unfortunately, the breakout has seen 10yr yields surge almost 10bps above the range ceiling in just 2 days. Technical analysts are high fiving ...Read More

Mortgage Rates Jump to Match Highest Levels in Nearly a Month

1/20/2026 2:28 PM

Mortgage rates jumped sharply higher on Tuesday in response to weakness driven by geopolitical events and overseas financial markets. After hitting lows of 5.99% for a few hours on January 9th and spending last week in the low 6"s, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate is back up to 6.21% today.  This matches the level seen the day before the ...Read More

Custom Software, UW Tools; FHA, USDA News; Webinars Today and Tomorrow; Mitch Kider Interview

1/20/2026 10:47 AM

On today’s Mortgage Law Today at 3PM ET, sponsored by Polunsky Beitel Green, LLP, Brian Levy sits down with Mitch Kider to unpack the shifting legal and regulatory landscape facing mortgage lenders, CFPB uncertainty, fair lending risk, GSE policy, enforcement trends, and how AI is beginning to reshape legal strategy heading into 2026. on tomorrow’s...Read More

Bonds Brace For Greenland Fallout. Japan Not Helping Either

1/20/2026 8:36 AM

As Trump"s Greenland aspirations continue unabated, measurable fallout is increasing. Part of the strategy is increased tariffs. EU is also planning/threatening retaliatory tariffs as well as suspending talks on the US/EU trade deal. The latest measurable manifestation of this morning"s fallout is the announcement that a Danish pension fund is liqu...Read More

10yr Yields Finally Break The Range

1/16/2026 3:28 PM

10yr Yields Finally Break The Range Despite an absence of market movers on the calendar, bonds found a reason to move. In fact, 10yr yields staged their first legit breakout from the narrow trading range of the past 4 months.  Whether that has any implications for the future is a debate for technical a...Read More

Mortgage Rates End Week at Highs

1/16/2026 3:06 PM

Don"t stress out. If we ignore the past 5 days, today"s mortgage rates are still the lowest since early 2023.  That said, they"re up a bit from last week and they moved moderately higher day-over-day. Last week"s news regarding Fannie and Freddie"s plans to buy $200 bln of MBS (the mortgage-backed securities that directly dictate mortgage rat...Read More

Builder Sentiment Survey Not Yet Reflecting Recent Rate Changes

1/16/2026 1:23 PM

Builder confidence slipped to start the year, with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) falling two points to 37 in January. The erasure of December’s modest gains doesn"t really do much to change the broader picture: builder sentiment remains stuck in a holding pattern near its lowest levels, weig...Read More

Compliance, Servicing, Mortgage Reset Tools; February and March Events and Education

1/16/2026 10:50 AM

How are we halfway done with January already? Wasn’t it just New Year’s? Some lenders slow down in the winter, but I am hearing reports of great Decembers and Januarys. Wanna fire up your sales team? Here’s an article: “The golden handcuffs are slipping in the U.S. housing market.” As industry vets knew they would eventually, borrowers with “once-i...Read More

Slow Start, Quiet Calendar

1/16/2026 9:38 AM

Last week reinforced the lesson anything can happen in the bond market--even with less than an hour left on an otherwise uneventful day. There"s no way to plan ahead for that eternal caveat, so we"re left to observe prevailing momentum/volatility and simply consider risks on the event calendar. In today"s case, bonds are moderately weaker overnight...Read More

Data-Driven Weakness

1/15/2026 3:32 PM

Data-Driven Weakness It was a reasonably straightforward day for the bond market. Trading was flat overnight, then weaker after the 8:30am Jobless Claims data.  That report is hit and miss as a market mover, but a sub-200k print without any recent seasonal spike is certainly worth a few bps of weakness...Read More

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