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Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally

12/16/2025 1:42 PM

Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally If the only metric from this morning"s jobs report was the uptick in unemployment from 4.4 to 4.6%, and if that was the last of this week"s big ticket econ data, it wouldn"t be a surprise to see a more aggressive rate rally. As it stands, unemployment wa...Read More

Mortgage Rates Only Slightly Lower, But Volatility Risks Remain

12/16/2025 1:08 PM

There was a decent chance that rates would have made a fairly big move today in response to the release of November"s jobs report. This is the most important economic data as far as rates are concerned and today"s was the first full release since before the government shutdown. In general, weaker employment data promotes lower rates and vice versa...Read More

Cap Markets Education, Servicing, Borrower Monitoring Products; Marketing Thoughts for 2026

12/16/2025 10:41 AM

Running a mortgage company, turns out, isn’t free, and lenders are trying to cut costs and increase efficiency everywhere. For example (and this is not a paid ad), Lenders One offers some member benefits that may be of interest: L1 Credit for credit reports and fraud tools, L1 Flood for NFIP compliance, and L1 Insurance to help borrowers get compet...Read More

Frustratingly Flat After Deceptively Friendly Jobs Report

12/16/2025 8:05 AM

If there was one metric in this morning"s data that should be helping the bond market, it"s the uptick in the unemployment rate from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November (a new cycle high). This is mitigated somewhat by the uptick in participation rate (0.1%) and the slightly higher payroll count (64k vs 50k f"cast). In addition, BLS noted lower r...Read More

Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck

12/15/2025 2:20 PM

Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck Monday ended up being a forgettable December trading day with modest overnight gains eroding to roughly unchanged levels by the 3pm close. There were no catalysts worth discussing, and even if there were, they"d pale in comparison to the inbound econ data. Tuesday mor...Read More

Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower as Volatility Risks Increase

12/15/2025 1:41 PM

Mortgage rates were just slightly lower to start the new week. This leaves the average lender"s top tier 30yr fixed rate almost dead center in the narrow range that"s been intact since early September. The absence of any significant movement on Monday is a logical outcome given the absence of any major economic data releases or headlines. But Tues...Read More

Hedging Auditor, Broker Survey, Non-QM, DSCR Products; Rising Insurance Costs

12/15/2025 10:46 AM

Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software Home equity may have been the headline in 2025, but the real story is what comes next. With nearly $35 trillion in homeowner equity and rising consumer debt shaping borrower behavior, the opportunity is clear. The path to capturing it is not. On Wednesday, Dec. 17, at 3 p.m. Central Time, leaders...Read More

Welcoming Back Timelier BLS Data

12/15/2025 9:00 AM

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for the two most important economic reports to the bond market: The Employment Situation (aka jobs report or NFP) and The Consumer Price Index (CPI). This week marks the return of more timely installments of these reports with NFP on Tuesday (still not 100% timely, but only a week and a half late)...Read More

Anyone Who Tells You They Know What Happens Next For Rates is Lying

12/12/2025 3:18 PM

Friday saw mortgage rates move back up near the highest levels of the week, and thus the highest levels of the past 3 months. Thus ends another week where mortgage rates end higher despite a Fed rate cut. We"ve beaten this horse to death, but here are the two key reasons Fed rate cuts don"t necessarily result in lower mortgage rates, in as few wor...Read More

Correspondent Products, STRATMOR on Borrower Psychology; Lender Tools; DSCR Appraisal Issues in Baltimore

12/12/2025 10:44 AM

“What happened with the DSCR appraisal issue in Baltimore earlier this year?” Good question. Baltimore is not alone: This week we have investors either pricing themselves out of, or ceasing loans from, the Philly market for certain non-owner loans.) The whole Baltimore thing seems to have quieted down, and up until recently the last news coming in ...Read More

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