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Big Intraday Round Trip For Bonds; Williams Helped

9/29/2026 3:56 PM

Big Intraday Round Trip For Bonds; Williams Helped Bonds spent the first half of the day pressing into even weaker levels in spite of a respectable drop in oil prices. Data and headlines had little to no bearing on the selling. If anything, the biggest scapegoat is the combination of bearish momentum and qu...Read More

Mortgage Rates Rise to 7.58%

9/29/2026 3:03 PM

Mortgage rates moved higher again on Tuesday as the bond market continues recalibrating expectations for Fed policy, economic growth, and inflation. The weakness is especially frustrating considering a fairly large drop in oil prices today, but as we discussed yesterday, rates have a lot more on their mind than oil these days. Our top-tier 30yr fi...Read More

AI Marketing, SOC, HELOC Fulfillment Tools; Rocket Makes VantageScore Move, But Serious Investor Questions Remain

9/29/2026 10:13 AM

Lender and Brokers Products, Services, and Software Regulatory oversight for automated valuation models (AVMs) has shifted in recent years, placing greater emphasis on rigorous testing and validation. Lenders who aren’t keeping pace with evolving compliance requirements can be exposed to greater risk. ICE’s AVM Model Monitor provides on-demand de...Read More

Now Completely Shunning The Drop in Oil

9/29/2026 8:37 AM

Bonds were initially modestly stronger overnight, but mostly sideways in the bigger picture. Right at the 8:20am CME open, bond sellers were clearly waiting in line to sell. This is another small anecdote that potentially suggests month/quarter-end trading is contributing to this week"s volatility. It could also be an ongoing defensive stance ...Read More

Bond-Specific Weakness

9/28/2026 4:18 PM

Bond-Specific Weakness Over the past 6 months, as bonds continued to sell off, there was frequently some solace in the fact that the rate spike correlated with oil or diesel prices enough to hope that an oil price recovery would pave the way for a rate recovery. While there"s likely still some benefit for b...Read More

Mortgage Rates Officially Hit 7.5%

9/28/2026 3:07 PM

Despite Friday afternoon"s promising bond market rally and mortgage rate improvement, today"s top tier 30yr fixed rate bounced back up. The average lender is now at 7.50% for the first time since April 30, 2024.  While there"s been a lot of short-term correlation between oil prices and interest rates over the last 6 months, oil does a poor jo...Read More

Verification, U/W, PPE, Margin Mgt. Tools; Webinars; MISMO and FRAME Offer; Buydown breakdown

9/28/2026 10:23 AM

We’re waist deep in conferences (click here to view or add events), and every week I receive a half a dozen invitations to mortgage golf events centered around a conference. How about coming up with something where you can see and talk to more than three other people for 3-4 hours? Group hikes? Make-a-bear? Mini-golf? Bowling? Croquet? Pretzel maki...Read More

Another Red Start, And It"s Not All About Oil

9/28/2026 9:10 AM

Bonds lost ground overnight with traders reacting to Trump"s rejection of Iran"s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This isn"t the first time that bonds have reacted to war headlines regardless of movement in oil prices. While oil also moved higher throughout the overnight session, bonds are increasingly detached in the bigger picture with yi...Read More

Respectable Recovery. Is It a Trap?

9/25/2026 4:19 PM

Respectable Recovery. Is It a Trap? First thing"s first: the parabolic flourish of bond selling of the past 2 weeks is arguably unprecedented in recent memory. Specifically, we"ve seen similar levels of overall weakness over similar time frames, but we haven"t seen the same sort of concentrated acceleration...Read More

New Home Sales Back in The Range After Uncommonly Big Bounce

9/25/2026 3:34 PM

The new home market returned to the longer-term range last month, with sales seeing their 4th biggest rebound in 4 years.  Sales of new single-family homes rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August, up 6.4% from July"s revised 643,000 but 2.0% below the same month last year. The increase puts sales back above the 60...Read More

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