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No Whammies in CPI Data (And No Bond Market Reaction)

4/10/2026 8:06 AM

The median forecast for monthly core CPI was 0.28% (0.3 after rounding up for most econ calendars). Today"s actual number was 0.196--obviously quite a bit lower than forecasts. In addition, supercore fell to .179 from .349. Despite those victories, forecasts correctly predicted a sharp rise in headline inflation which moved up from 2.4% to 3.3% yea...Read More

Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility

4/9/2026 2:55 PM

Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility As has been the recent custom, there were dueling headlines concerning the Iran war today with opposing claims regarding the status of the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire. If that sounds like kind of a stretch when it comes to bond market significance, bo...Read More

Mortgage Rates Trickle Just a Bit Lower

4/9/2026 2:25 PM

Many borrowers will see no difference between yesterday and today"s mortgage rate quotes. The average lender moved just a hair lower. Once again, the rate market is responding to war-related headlines and their impact on oil prices. Rates don"t always care what oil prices are doing, but at present, there"s more correlation than normal due to the i...Read More

Commercial, UAD 3.6, Data Analysis Tools; AI Governance, Consistency, and Focusing on the Basics

4/9/2026 10:52 AM

VantageScore, created in 2006, is a joint venture by the three major credit bureaus (Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion). Will it change your lending process? Possibly. Do government regulations change your lending process? States have trigger lead requirement overlays, over and above what was enacted at the Federal level in March. (Talk to your att...Read More

Flood of Data. No Real Reaction. Back to Watching Headlines

4/9/2026 8:08 AM

The overnight session leading into this morning"s open was completely sideways--especially compared to yesterday"s example. The boatload of econ data line items did nothing to change that. Expectations weren"t high anyway. GDP (Q4) and monthly PCE (February) are both too stale to matter. Jobless Claims were a mixed bag with initial claims rising su...Read More

Bonds Lose Almost All The Overnight Gains

4/8/2026 3:33 PM

Bonds Lose Almost All The Overnight Gains Bonds rallied sharply overnight--adding onto an already decent rally yesterday afternoon that took 10yr yields from 4.38% to 4.23% in less than 24 hours. Now at Wednesday"s close, we"re back to unchanged levels near 4.30%.  The move follows a similar correction...Read More

Mortgage Rates Only Slightly Lower After Ceasefire News

4/8/2026 2:27 PM

It"s a fluid situation in financial markets on Wednesday. The 2-week ceasefire in the Iran war caused a big reaction last night, but the benefit to the bond market (bonds dictate rates) has been increasingly wiped out during domestic hours.  If we measure the reversal versus yesterday"s closing levels at 5pm ET, the reversal is almost complet...Read More

Property Mining, AI Processing Tools; STRATMOR on subservicing; LOs and Re-Engaging Clients; Cease Fire and Rates

4/8/2026 10:44 AM

U.S. population growth slowed sharply between July 2024 and July 2025, rising just 1.8 million people (0.5 percent) to 341.8 million, the weakest growth since the early pandemic. This was driven primarily by a steep 54 percent drop in net international migration from 2.7 million to 1.3 million (the result of ICE?), while births and deaths remained ...Read More

Logical Rally After Ceasefire Agreement

4/8/2026 8:06 AM

The wheels were already in motion by the time yesterday"s recap came out, and participants in the MBS Live chat room were already high-fiving as we watched overnight price movement yesterday evening (and also hoping there wouldn"t be some counterintuitive head fake).  As the domestic session gets underway, things are proceeding very logically ...Read More

Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different

4/7/2026 3:39 PM

Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different April 7th has been one of the most important days on the calendar for the Iran war due to deadline for Iran to accept Trump"s terms or face major escalation. If the escalation was even remotely similar to Trump"s threats, it would all but preclude a quick end to th...Read More

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