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Tariff Ruling Tried (And Failed) to Steal The Show

2/20/2026 3:44 PM

Tariff Ruling Tried (And Failed) to Steal The Show If you were told ahead of time that Friday morning would bring news that the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, you wouldn"t be crazy to think it would be the week"s biggest news and a big potential source of volatility for bonds. But reality wasn...Read More

Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows

2/20/2026 2:18 PM

Bonds dictate mortgage rates and bonds experienced a bit of volatility this morning in response to the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. The initial impact was negative for rates with Treasury yields moving higher and the prices for mortgage-backed securities moving lower. But the reaction was well-contained and bonds ended up erasing most of it by ...Read More

New Home Sales Remain Near Recent Highs

2/20/2026 1:47 PM

If there"s one housing market metric that paints a brighter picture than the rest, it"s New Home Sales data from the Census Bureau. At 745,000, it eased slightly from an upwardly-revised annual rate of 758,000 , but was higher then the pre-revision reading of 737k, and 3.8% above December 2024’s 718,000. Fairly chunky revisions are par for the cou...Read More

Pending Sales Dip as Affordability Gains Fail to Spark Demand

2/20/2026 1:42 PM

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) slipped modestly in January, easily prolonging its stay in a narrow range near all-time lows. Pending home sales decreased 0.8% month over month and were down 0.4% compared with the same time last year. While affordability conditions have improved somewhat as mortgage rates ...Read More

Fraud, Retention, Marketing Tools; Assessing Income; STRATMOR on Org. Structure; Non-Agency Updates

2/20/2026 10:55 AM

Mail-related check fraud never seems to go away, and the FBI reminds us that blue gel pens certainly help in reducing check fraud. “Rob, are you hearing that the increase in the popularity of artificial intelligence has led to an increase in mortgage fraud?” Yes, I have. It can be insidious… it may not show up until months or years have passed. Inv...Read More

Opening Salvo of Data Fails to Inspire

2/20/2026 8:25 AM

At the time of this writing, there are still a few econ reports left on deck, but the big ones are out. GDP missed big (1.4 vs 3.0), but largely for non-economic reasons. For instance, the BEA noted an entire 1% of the decline from the 4.4% reading in Q3 was due to the way it counts federal worker labor during the shutdown. Most of the rest is due ...Read More

Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday"s Econ Data

2/19/2026 3:36 PM

Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday"s Econ Data Bonds spent the past 2 days pushing back toward slightly higher yields after the 10yr nearly hit 4.0% in Tuesday"s overnight session. While there was probably some technical resistance at work, Thursday suggests it wasn"t a lasting, thematic shift. In other...Read More

Mortgage Rates Hold Flat on Thursday Despite Lower Weekly Average

2/19/2026 2:33 PM

For the average lender, top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday. This keeps them right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years. That said, if we"re splitting hairs, better rates were available 4 days in the past month and a half (Jan 9, Jan 12, Feb 13, Feb 17). So why is it that there are news ...Read More

Prudent AI"s Income, Correspondent, LOS Tools; The Fed"s Bank Mortgage Proposal; STRATMOR on LOs; Elliot Eisenberg Interview

2/19/2026 10:45 AM

It’s hard to believe that the COVID pandemic was six years ago with its increase in deaths. For our biz, we switched to “work from home,” among other changes. Along those lines, I received this note: “Rob, are you hearing about a concern among lenders about the liquidity of the non-QM sector? As in a repeat of March 2020 when many non-QM lenders su...Read More

Accidental Clairvoyance (Not Really...)

2/19/2026 7:53 AM

Yesterday"s end-of-day recap bore the title "Half-Hearted Correction Continues." It turns out that should have been the title for this morning"s commentary as it"s a better description of this morning"s trading (yesterday, we actually had a few fundamentals to justify the weakness). In today"s case, bonds are weaker "just because." Jobless Claims d...Read More

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