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AI, Cap Mkts Tools; Delinquencies Increasing; loanDepot Case Ethics Motion; Bill Dawley Interview

12/23/2025 10:52 AM

Will rates impact the latest MBA origination forecast of $2.2 trillion next year? Sure, although… The Federal Reserve has cut overnight rates, but longer-term rates (like 15- and 30-year mortgages) have done little or have gone up. Recently news came out that Freddie and Fannie are buying securities that they produce. If GM is buying its own cars, ...Read More

GDP Reaction a Prime Example of Holiday Distortion

12/23/2025 8:54 AM

We"ve spent the past several days reiterating and lamenting the onset of the holiday trading doldrums--a time of year that sees vastly lower volumes/liquidity/participation, and thus runs the risk of volatility that"s more random and larger than it otherwise would be. Now this morning, GDP came in much higher than expected and bonds are selling off...Read More

Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition

12/22/2025 2:57 PM

Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition Bonds came into the domestic session at slightly weaker levels and held mostly sideways for the entire day. There were no meaningful market movers in play, let alone any meaningful movement. Volume clocked in at the lowest non-holiday level of the year. NOTE: this week...Read More

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady to Start Holiday-Shortened Week

12/22/2025 2:21 PM

Mortgage rates are tied to movement in the bond market and bonds were close enough to Friday"s levels that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged today. This keeps the average lender in the lower portion of the narrow range seen over the past 4 months.  If rates manage to move noticeably lower from here, they"ll be challenging the lowest le...Read More

Transitions; Broker, HELOC Products; loanDepot LO Comp Case Ethics Question; Dive Into Data

12/22/2025 10:48 AM

As we approach the end of the year, we’re seeing the usual interest in other opportunities, especially if pipelines aren’t full or management is dealing with people “aging out.” I received this note: “Rob, I need a very targeted approach to finding a new CFO, as my current one is retiring. Know anyone who can help?” I do indeed. You can start with ...Read More

Range-Bound Cruise Control

12/22/2025 9:34 AM

2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/liquidity that any apparently significant shifts would be taken with a grain of salt anyway. Even as we look back over the past 4 months, we see a persistence of the very narrow 4.00-4.20 range in 10yr yields. ...Read More

Bond Market in Holiday Mode

12/19/2025 3:33 PM

Bond Market in Holiday Mode Holiday mode is impossible to clearly define when it comes to its impact on the bond market. We know it when we see it, and we saw it today. Bonds paid no attention to econ data no matter how much it may seem that the 10am Consumer Sentiment numbers had an impact. Movement was mi...Read More

Mortgage Rates Just Off 2-Week Lows

12/19/2025 3:09 PM

It ended up being a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates despite scattered speculation about the impact of foreign monetary policy decisions. The average lender nudged just a hair higher, resulting in the 2nd lowest reading of the week. Apart from yesterday, the last day with lower rates was more than 2 weeks ago on December 4th. The coming we...Read More

Highest Existing Home Sales in 8 Months But Don"t Get Excited

12/19/2025 12:55 PM

Existing-home sales extended their recent stabilization in November, rising 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This is the 3rd straight increase and annualized sales are at their highest level in 8 months. The catch is that--much like several other housing metrics--...Read More

Three Straight Months of Improvement in Builder Confidence, But There"s a Catch

12/19/2025 12:39 PM

The December National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) edged up one point to 39. This is the 3rd straight month of improvement in the index--a development that could be confused for something encouraging.  But the reality is that builder confidence is merely drifting along just barely above the lowest ...Read More

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