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Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck

8/27/2026 3:25 PM

Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck To reiterate a sentiment from this morning, there"s a decent amount of focus on Friday"s Warsh speech at Jackson Hole simply because it"s customary to focus on Fed Chair speeches at Jackson Hole. They"re hit and miss in terms of delivering on volat...Read More

Mortgage Rates Hold Fairly Steady

8/27/2026 2:45 PM

Mortgage rates barely budged again on Thursday, but there was far less data to digest compared to Wednesday. Bonds (which dictate rates) were steady to slightly weaker. The "weaker" part connotes higher rates, but the weakness was late in the day and too small for most mortgage lenders to do anything about it. What does that mean? Unlike the actu...Read More

Hedging, Accounting, Verification, Jumbo, Workflow Tools; In-Person Events

8/27/2026 10:45 AM

Thank you to the folks who wrote to me about their concerns with the Reno fire, knowing my ties there (my place is safe). On a broader scale, as of August 24, the United States has had nearly 51,000 wildfires, blazes that have burned over 7.8 million acres, a concern of everyone including lenders and servicers. It’s not your imagination that it’s a...Read More

Counting Down to Warsh

8/27/2026 9:16 AM

While it may end up being a complete non-event, the bond market is counting the hours until Friday"s Warsh appearance at Jackson Hole. There"s nothing else on the calendar this week with any serious potential to upset the apple cart (and again, it"s debatable that Warsh"s speech is much more of a risk than random pre-weekend position squaring). But...Read More

Some Pros and Cons in Today"s Weakness

8/26/2026 3:23 PM

Some Pros and Cons in Today"s Weakness Bonds lost ground today, but it wasn"t necessarily an unequivocally bad day. Yields were close to yesterday"s lows just before this morning"s PCE data came out and only moved higher after that. If the data had been better, it"s possible today could have started on a st...Read More

Mortgage Rates Lower or Higher, Depending on When You Look

8/26/2026 2:29 PM

Intraday volatility in the bond market can make it tricky to track day over day changes in mortgage rates. Lenders publish the day"s first rates based on bond market prices around 9:30-10:00am ET, but things can change if bonds move enough.  Yesterday, bonds improved enough in the afternoon for many lenders to offer lower rates. If we compare...Read More

Credit, AI Platform, System Tools; Webcasts; Equity and Non-Agency News; Capital Markets

8/26/2026 10:45 AM

Hackers intercepted about 103 bank regulators’ e-mails for more than a year, gaining access to highly sensitive financial information, according to two people familiar with the matter and a draft letter to Congress seen by Bloomberg News. What are the implications of that? Anthropic is telling investors that it has the potential revenue of basicall...Read More

Bonds Pouting After Higher PCE

8/26/2026 7:47 AM

To be fair, not all of the PCE data was higher than expected, but none of the top line numbers were lower than expected. Core PCE was on target (notably 0.246%, so it nearly rounded up to 0.3 vs 0.2), but headline inflation was a tenth of a point above the monthly and annual targets. Traders were apparently positioned for better news as the bond ma...Read More

Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes

8/25/2026 3:33 PM

Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes The day ended as it began: with bond yields and oil prices dropping in unison based on hopeful headlines surrounding the Iran war. Perhaps the market was in the mood for a rally because the headlines weren"t particularly specific or compelling. Oil prices are closer to the mi...Read More

Mortgage Rates Follow Oil Prices Lower

8/25/2026 2:41 PM

Fuel prices continue dictating most of the day-to-day momentum for interest rates and today was a notable example. Early this morning, news reports suggested progress in the peace process via Pakistani mediators. Oil prices dropped sharply in response and bond yields followed the move. Bond yields correlate with mortgage rates. When yields are fal...Read More

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