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Respectable Recovery. Is It a Trap?

9/25/2026 4:19 PM

Respectable Recovery. Is It a Trap? First thing"s first: the parabolic flourish of bond selling of the past 2 weeks is arguably unprecedented in recent memory. Specifically, we"ve seen similar levels of overall weakness over similar time frames, but we haven"t seen the same sort of concentrated acceleration...Read More

New Home Sales Back in The Range After Uncommonly Big Bounce

9/25/2026 3:34 PM

The new home market returned to the longer-term range last month, with sales seeing their 4th biggest rebound in 4 years.  Sales of new single-family homes rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August, up 6.4% from July"s revised 643,000 but 2.0% below the same month last year. The increase puts sales back above the 60...Read More

Refi Demand Logically Lower While Purchases Grind Sideways

9/25/2026 2:31 PM

Mortgage demand remained subdued last week as the 30-year fixed rate climbed above 7%. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.5% decline in total mortgage application volume for the week ending September 18, following a 4.1% drop the week before.  Purchase activity was the only saving grace. While technically 1% lower week-over...Read More

Mortgage Rates Had a Better Day, Ultimately Dropping Just Slightly

9/25/2026 1:36 PM

(NOTE: This article was updated  at 5:30pm from the version originally published at 2:36pm ET to reflect late day rate improvements). Mortgage rates have risen more than half a point in 2 weeks. While that"s certainly not the fastest jump we"ve seen, it is an extraordinarily uncommon pace--happening less than once per year on average (i.e. it...Read More

Cotality"s Product Array; NEXA on the Move, Mike Kortas Interview; AI and Experimentation

9/25/2026 10:55 AM

“Hey, it’s either network or no work.” For lenders, networking is an important part of their business. In addition, generally speaking, renters are prime “feeding grounds” for loan originators searching for clients. But there’s some disturbing signs out there: what if renters can’t even afford their rent? I was talking to a successful LO recently w...Read More

More Mid-Morning Selling, But MBS Outperforming

9/25/2026 10:00 AM

10yr yields began the morning in slightly stronger territory, generally following a modest decline in oil prices overnight. That trend actually ran its course by 5am ET and yields began rising gradually at that time. Sellers picked up the pace after 10am (partly oil-related, but certainly also plenty of bond-specific selling pressure). Yields are n...Read More

Brutal Day And For The Scariest Reasons

9/24/2026 4:30 PM

Brutal Day And For The Scariest Reasons Despite a slightly stronger start and initial promise of resilience in the face of higher oil prices, bonds bounced nauseatingly higher starting around 10am. Oil prices do a fairly terrible job of explaining the bond weakness, even though oil moved a few bucks higher ...Read More

Mortgage Rates Now Close to 7.5%

9/24/2026 2:44 PM

More than a few media outlets will tell you that 30yr fixed mortgage rates are just now moving over 7% based on the fact that Freddie Mac"s weekly rate survey hit 7.03%, up from 6.95% last week.  Before continuing, let"s be clear that Freddie"s weekly rates are a valuable resource for long-term, big picture analysis. But the survey is not an ...Read More

Verification, MERS Review, AI, LOS, Compliance Tools; KBW"s Bose George Interview

9/24/2026 10:40 AM

When in doubt, hold a conference. It is an aging group of attendees… exhibitors’ displays and giveaways tell the tale. Frisbees have been replaced with reading glasses. Golf balls by nail files and hangover remedy pouches. MBA cut its 2027 forecast to $2.101 trillion; $634 billion is what the Mortgage Bankers Association now expects Americans to re...Read More

Slightly Stronger Start Despite Higher Oil Prices

9/24/2026 8:34 AM

Let"s not get too excited. After all, today"s yields are the second highest in 19 years, but still... this morning"s price action is better than a sharp stick in the eye. Bonds held almost perfectly flat in the overnight session and Fed rate expectations tempered yesterday"s exuberance a bit (hence, 2yr yields are down 3-4bps more than 10yr yields)...Read More

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