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Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility

11/18/2025 3:46 PM

Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility With only a few exceptions, bonds have been a rudderless ship during the government shutdown. With the backlogged data returning in a slow and uncertain fashion, rudder repairs are similarly slow. In today"s case, bonds benefited from overnight strength in overseas bond...Read More

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Yet Again as Data Returns

11/18/2025 3:11 PM

With economic data being the most consistent source of motivation for rates, the market has been eager for it to return with the reopening of the government. While some higher profile reports have been rescheduled for the coming days (i.e. on Thursday, we"ll get the jobs report that we were supposed to get in early October), most updated release da...Read More

AVM, Marketing, Tax Service, Blockchain Tools; Deep Dive on Lisa Cook and Alleged Fraud; Capital Markets

11/18/2025 10:44 AM

Supposedly commercial air travel is back to normal, good for anyone coming in for the Mortgage Bankers Association of St. Louis event tomorrow and Thursday’s Mortgage Bankers Association of Kansas City annual luncheon. Speaking of Missouri, the Pony Express ran between St. Joseph and Sacramento for 18 months in 1860–1861, put out of business by the...Read More

Bonds Buy The Dip Regardless of AM Data

11/18/2025 9:22 AM

We"ve seen a clumsy, confused return of various economic reports this morning (several reports were no previously announced with rescheduled release dates). Thankfully, the surprise releases were not big-ticket items. The most relevant report of the morning was ADP"s new weekly job count ("NER Pulse") which showed another decline. By the time it ca...Read More

Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform

11/17/2025 3:07 PM

Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform In the bigger picture, bonds were flat on Monday without any major volatility in either direction. But if we break out the microscope, we find longer-term Treasuries rallying modestly while MBS lost 1 tick by the 3pm close. In today"s case, the MBS underperformance is mos...Read More

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady to Begin New Week

11/17/2025 2:33 PM

The bond market (which dictates rates) was roughly unchanged over the weekend. As such, it"s no surprise to see mortgage rates right in line with Friday"s latest levels. For the average lender, this means conventional 30yr fixed rates are at the upper boundary of a narrow range stretch back to September 4th. It was the September 5th jobs report th...Read More

AI Outreach, Loan Loss, Credit, Reverse Tools; STRATMOR on LO Gratitude; Portable Mortgages?

11/17/2025 10:47 AM

Today’s trivia: Missouri and Tennessee are tied for bordering the most states: eight. This week I head to Missouri, the jumping off point for thousands of wagon trains heading west in the mid-1800s. Back then, land grants were relatively common but home loans weren’t, LTVs were high, and repayment was usually within five years. Deals were done with...Read More

How Much Will This Week"s Delayed Jobs Report Matter?

11/17/2025 8:30 AM

The jobs report (for September) will be released on Thursday. It is the first major econ data to re-appear after the shutdown. Notably, that"s because it was ready to publish at the time of the shutdown (so don"t expect a flood of other announcements). By the time it comes out, we"ll have been waiting 1.5 months for a report that oth...Read More

Gains Completely Erased; Stocks Looking More Culpable

11/14/2025 3:58 PM

Gains Completely Erased; Stocks Looking More Culpable Viewed in a vacuum, this mornings 7-8am rally remains enigmatic. There was some small case to be made that stock losses played a role, but the bond buying definitely didn"t line up with stocks in a normal way (i.e. it looked like there was some third var...Read More

Rates Rise on Friday, Now Near 2-Month Highs

11/14/2025 3:10 PM

Mortgage rates were only modestly higher on Friday, but because of the narrow prevailing range and previous increases this week, that brings us right in line with 2-month highs. Bonds (which dictate rates) began the day with promise. There was heavy buying (good for rates) in the 7am hour. This coincided with stocks challenging their lowest levels...Read More

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