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| Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP | ||
| 7/2/2025 2:43 PM | ||
| Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP The consensus for tomorrow"s NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the principal component of the big jobs report) is 110k--not much of a downgrade from last month"s 139k. The bond market has recently been trading as if it expects to see an even lower number--a fact tha...Read More | ||
| Rates Finally Rise Ahead of Jobs Report | ||
| 7/2/2025 1:53 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates have generally been falling since May 21st and have done nothing but move lower for more than 2 weeks. That winning streak finally came to an end today with the average lender moving up 0.06% for a top tier 30yr fixed quote. While that"s a moderately big jump for a single day, if we remove the past 4 days from the equation, to...Read More | ||
| Processing, Lead-Gen Tools; HELOCs, 2nds, Non-Agency Products; Maryland"s DSCR Controversy | ||
| 7/2/2025 10:51 AM | ||
| “Pro Tip: Here’s a friendly 4th of July reminder that absolutely no one is going to watch the videos of the fireworks you record on your phone.” You can bet anyone flying some place is watching the flight delays due to staffing and weather. You can bet that people are watching home price appreciation, especially in terms of home equity, HELOCs, and...Read More | ||
| Bonds Think About Rallying on ADP Data, But Already Getting Cold Feet | ||
| 7/2/2025 8:54 AM | ||
| ADP employment was this morning"s key economic report and it came out sharply weaker than expected (-33k vs 95k f"cast). There are many past examples of a "miss" of this size prompting a swift rally on the bond market. Although that looked like it could have been in the works in the first few minutes, bonds have since reversed course and move...Read More | ||
| Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data | ||
| 7/1/2025 3:06 PM | ||
| Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds were right in line with yesterday afternoon"s levels ahead of the 10am data. JOLTS (job openings) pushed yields back to yesterday"s highs--perhaps with some help from the Senate"s passage of the s...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 3 Month Lows | ||
| 7/1/2025 2:09 PM | ||
| It"s been 88 days since the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was as low as it is today--close enough to 3 months. Some lenders may be higher or lower than they were yesterday depending on whether or not changed rates yesterday afternoon. Mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day, but can "reprice" if the underlying bond market moves ...Read More | ||
| FICO Simulation, Georgia Servicing, Recapture Tools; What LOs Should Be Doing Now; Deficits and the New Tax Bill | ||
| 7/1/2025 10:50 AM | ||
| “Life is like a roll of toilet paper: The closer you get to the end, the faster it goes.” Just like that, 2025 is half over. With it have come changes at the GSEs, government loan programs, and the compliance landscape. In his latest edition of Mortgage Musings, Attorney Brian Levy offers insights on the trigger lead bill(s) and the challenges face...Read More | ||
| AM Data Possibly Arguing For a Bounce | ||
| 7/1/2025 9:33 AM | ||
| Tuesday brings the week"s first decent dose of meaningful economic data with both S&P/ISM Manufacturing PMIs and Job Openings. The PMI data was somewhat more debatable with headline levels slightly stronger than expected, but some internal components remaining bond-friendly. Job openings data was less equivocal, suggesting a marked ...Read More | ||
| Steady Gains in the PM Hours | ||
| 6/30/2025 3:45 PM | ||
| Steady Gains in the PM Hours It"s common to see the effects of month/quarter-end trading most prominently in the PM hours and today"s quarter-end session was no exception. A glut of bond buying just after 12:30pm got the part started and yields bottomed out just before the 4pm NYSE close. While 4pm is...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Take Another Step Toward April Lows | ||
| 6/30/2025 2:28 PM | ||
| April 3rd and 4th saw the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates well into the "mid 6"s." Many lenders were able to quote 6.5% at the time. Just a few days ago, we noted there was still a ways to go before breaking below those early April levels, but the past few days have taken us within striking distance. The average lender...Read More | ||
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