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Credit and Verification, AI Compliance, CRA Sourcing Tools; Housing Bill Stalls; HMDA Data; Inflation Hopes and Rates

6/26/2026 10:10 AM

We know that a) Congress passed a housing bill which, if not signed within 10 days, becomes law anyway, and b) U.S. presidents are known to be candid. Once again, we see the intersection of housing, lending, and politics with not only the postponement by the President of signing the bill, but also the statement of his alleged opinion about housing....Read More

Sideways Start, Quiet Calendar, Quarter-End Volatility Potential

6/26/2026 9:01 AM

Q2 has been one of the best quarters for stocks going all the way back to the dot com boom, even after the 4-5% pullback in June. This has created a massive quarter-end rebalancing need among money managers and we"ve seen that random volatility play out in both stocks and bonds over the past few weeks. As the quarter wraps up in the next 3 business...Read More

Mostly Holding Yesterday"s Big Gains

6/25/2026 2:27 PM

Mostly Holding Yesterday"s Big Gains Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory, but not weak enough to take 10yr yields above the 4.42% technical level. That was a notable development even before considering subsequent movement. The 8:30am PCE inflation data made room for a friendly reversal with mod...Read More

Lowest Mortgage Rates Since May 14th

6/25/2026 12:45 PM

Mortgage rates had a great day yesterday, moving within 0.01% of the lowest levels in more than a month. They dropped just a bit more today and are now officially the lowest they"ve been since May 14th.  Today"s improvement was more of an afterthought, but nonetheless helps legitimize yesterday"s heavy lifting as something other than a freak ...Read More

Borrower Retention, AI Governance, Jumbo Products; Borrower Recapture Trends; MLO Opportunity Thoughts

6/25/2026 10:18 AM

Around the country, originators seem less focused on the housing bill signing ceremony postponement than on “opportunity.” There are opportunities, but not for every LO. There is the opportunity (and goal) of senior management to make their company immune from economic and world political turmoil. There is the opportunity to anchor the business to ...Read More

Decent Start After PCE Comes in On-Target

6/25/2026 7:59 AM

The PCE price index may be a less timely report than CPI/PPI when it comes to measuring inflation in the U.S., but it"s more thorough and has stronger implications for Fed policy. Traders were apparently braced for today"s number to be a bit hotter. Bonds rallied moderately after core monthly PCE came in as-expected at 0.3%. Annual inflation is run...Read More

What"s Up With Today"s Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing)

6/24/2026 2:52 PM

What"s Up With Today"s Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing) Stocks went on a tear in Q2 with the S&P up 20% as recently at June 16th. AI-adjacent stocks were up over 50%. Bonds lost ground over the same time. That means the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio targets were thrown way out of wh...Read More

Mortgage Rates Quickly Approaching 1-Month Lows

6/24/2026 1:52 PM

Rate momentum shifted noticeably on Wednesday. The underlying bond market saw heavy buying in pre-market trading--likely a result of large-scale quarter-end rebalancing among the largest money managers (i.e. adjusting balance of stocks vs bonds in investment portfolios). Excess demand for bonds = lower rates, all else equal. It also hasn"t hurt th...Read More

Retention, Credit, CU Lending, Disaster Analysis Tools; Housing Act to the President; Webcasts

6/24/2026 10:46 AM

“Why did the Dalai Lama go to Las Vegas? Because he loves Tibet.” It’s 107 F here in Las Vegas. Some would say, “It’s summer, what do you expect?” (No one expected 40 people to die in France trying to escape the heat.) Lenders and servicers are wondering, if push comes to shove about A/C in homes or supplying a local data center with electricity, w...Read More

Quick Rally Toward Key Resistance Just Before The Open

6/24/2026 8:34 AM

Bonds spend most of the night trading sideways to slightly stronger. Oil prices fell sharply, making it tempting to conclude that"s the reason that 10yr yields were almost 7bps lower at 9am. But more than half of the oil rally was over before Treasuries began rallying. There was an obvious and uncommonly large volume spike in Treasuries around 7:50...Read More

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