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10yr Yields Finally Break The Range

1/16/2026 3:28 PM

10yr Yields Finally Break The Range Despite an absence of market movers on the calendar, bonds found a reason to move. In fact, 10yr yields staged their first legit breakout from the narrow trading range of the past 4 months.  Whether that has any implications for the future is a debate for technical a...Read More

Mortgage Rates End Week at Highs

1/16/2026 3:06 PM

Don"t stress out. If we ignore the past 5 days, today"s mortgage rates are still the lowest since early 2023.  That said, they"re up a bit from last week and they moved moderately higher day-over-day. Last week"s news regarding Fannie and Freddie"s plans to buy $200 bln of MBS (the mortgage-backed securities that directly dictate mortgage rat...Read More

Builder Sentiment Survey Not Yet Reflecting Recent Rate Changes

1/16/2026 1:23 PM

Builder confidence slipped to start the year, with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) falling two points to 37 in January. The erasure of December’s modest gains doesn"t really do much to change the broader picture: builder sentiment remains stuck in a holding pattern near its lowest levels, weig...Read More

Compliance, Servicing, Mortgage Reset Tools; February and March Events and Education

1/16/2026 10:50 AM

How are we halfway done with January already? Wasn’t it just New Year’s? Some lenders slow down in the winter, but I am hearing reports of great Decembers and Januarys. Wanna fire up your sales team? Here’s an article: “The golden handcuffs are slipping in the U.S. housing market.” As industry vets knew they would eventually, borrowers with “once-i...Read More

Slow Start, Quiet Calendar

1/16/2026 9:38 AM

Last week reinforced the lesson anything can happen in the bond market--even with less than an hour left on an otherwise uneventful day. There"s no way to plan ahead for that eternal caveat, so we"re left to observe prevailing momentum/volatility and simply consider risks on the event calendar. In today"s case, bonds are moderately weaker overnight...Read More

Data-Driven Weakness

1/15/2026 3:32 PM

Data-Driven Weakness It was a reasonably straightforward day for the bond market. Trading was flat overnight, then weaker after the 8:30am Jobless Claims data.  That report is hit and miss as a market mover, but a sub-200k print without any recent seasonal spike is certainly worth a few bps of weakness...Read More

Mortgage Rates Higher For Some Lenders and Lower For Others

1/15/2026 2:25 PM

Mortgage rates moved modestly lower for the average lender today, but higher for others. The distinction is whether the lender in question made a late-day adjustment yesterday afternoon.  At the time, the underlying market for mortgage bonds was improving somewhat sharply. This prompted several lenders to drop rates before the end of business...Read More

Hedging, Corresp. and Broker, Servicing, Quality Management, Fraud Prevention Products

1/15/2026 10:47 AM

While rumors swirl that Jerome Powell is paying his own legal bills while dealing with the DOJ, and the Administration is ruminating on using 401(k) or 529 funds to buy a home, in the land of “concrete news” the office-to-apartment and condo conversion trend is accelerating, with the number of units repurposed from office buildings more than tripli...Read More

Stronger Jobless Claims Leads to Early Selling

1/15/2026 7:40 AM

The weekly jobless claims data (not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report) is hit and miss when it comes to its propensity to move the bond market. On occasions where the results fall far from the forecast, we tend to see moderate reactions. Odds increase when the headline breaks under the psychological level of 200k.  With that, tod...Read More

Some Asymmetric Risk When it Comes to Locking vs Floating

1/14/2026 2:57 PM

Some Asymmetric Risk When it Comes to Locking vs Floating Bonds improved today mostly in response to heavy stock losses creating some safe haven buying demand. Data wasn"t heavily traded, but it didn"t do any harm. Producer Prices were mixed, with an upward revision in September being offset by lower-than-e...Read More

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