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Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe

7/31/2026 3:08 PM

Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe Friday was very much NOT on the beaten path of typical bond market considerations with most of the selling arguably stemming from Japanese currency intervention. We"ve seen similar episodes in the past, but  today"s installment came with a twist. In addition to ...Read More

Mortgage Rates Back Near Long-Term Highs

7/31/2026 12:36 PM

To be fair, mortgage rates haven"t been far from their long-term highs in over a week, but today"s 30yr fixed index level of 6.83% is functionally equivalent to the actual long-term high of 6.85% seen on July 23rd.   Higher rates are driven by weakness in the bond market. The latter can happen for many reasons. Sometimes those reasons ar...Read More

Regional Divide Persists as Home Price Growth Edges Higher in May

7/31/2026 11:41 AM

Home price appreciation remained modest in May, according to data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices . Although both reports showed annual price growth improving slightly from April, appreciation continued to trail inflation, underscoring a housing market where elevated mortgage rates, affordability pressures...Read More

Mortgage Applications Fall 6.4% as Rates Continue Upward March

7/31/2026 11:33 AM

Mortgage application activity pulled back last week as higher borrowing costs weighed on both home purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 6.4% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 24. Purchase applications decreased 4% from the previous week on a ...Read More

Verification, CRA Tracking, State-Level Tax and MGIC Webinars, Non-Agency Product Developments

7/31/2026 10:49 AM

I am no numerologist, but Freddie Mac’s announcement yesterday, that 30-year mortgage rates are averaging 6.66, caught my attention. Unlike rumors, like the one going around about a Texas IMB buying California IMB, hard, provable numbers are hard to argue with… Like the hundreds of thousands of people every month turning 62. Setting up a reverse di...Read More

Japan Currency Intervention, Oil, and Data Causing Some Selling

7/31/2026 8:09 AM

Japan"s Ministry of Finance (MOF) and central bank (BOJ) are a bit more closely linked than Treasury and the Fed. For example, the MOF can instruct the BOJ to sell a bunch of securities to pop up the value of domestic currency. They did this in relatively grand fashion yesterday, but the selling didn"t appear to involve Treasuries (as it sometimes ...Read More

Bullets Dodged

7/30/2026 3:14 PM

Bullets Dodged We"ve seen our fair share of bonds punishing the market on occasions where bond traders were forced to worry about a significant change in a fiscal or monetary regime (or the absence of a desired change). Wednesday"s reaction to the Fed ran the risk of setting the stage for similar momentum. ...Read More

Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Lower

7/30/2026 1:52 PM

It"s not at all uncommon for mortgage rates to experience microscopic movement in either direction on any given day. In fact, it"s probably the most common eventuality over time. In that sense, today was unremarkable with the average lender moving just a hair lower versus yesterday"s latest levels. But in another sense, it"s very good news. After ...Read More

UAD 3.6, Reverse, AI, Co-Issue Products; Freddie Clocks in at $3.8 Billion; Morgan Stanley Did What in Mortgages?

7/30/2026 10:56 AM

I was recently doing some bike riding in the Napa Valley and spent some time speaking with a wine maker. She told me that because of the increase in temperatures, growers are buying land to the south and planting vineyards there, nearer the San Francisco Bay where it is cooler. Their livelihood is at stake “up Valley.” In addition, this year’s harv...Read More

Sideways Start is a Victory

7/30/2026 8:40 AM

This morning could have been much worse. The bond market could have continued spiraling on fear that it is now responsible for conducting monetary policy--something that sounds weird when you first read it, but is actually central to the discussion based on Warsh"s comments in yesterday"s press conference. In short, bonds tightened policy yesterday...Read More

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