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Even More Confirmation Throughout The Day

9/17/2026 5:39 PM

Even More Confirmation Throughout The Day It was heartening to see bonds erase yesterday"s losses by the time domestic trading got underway today. Unmitigated victory would have required flat/higher oil prices. Instead, we were forced to wonder how much credit to give lower oil prices versus the expectation...Read More

Mortgage Rates Back Near Lows of The Week

9/17/2026 1:50 PM

We love it when a plan comes together. Heading into yesterday"s Fed announcement, the hope was that a rate hike would reassure investors in longer-term bonds (like those that underlie mortgage rates). We also didn"t expect that benefit to necessarily play out on the day of the hike itself (it didn"t).  In fact, Fed day threw rates a bit of a ...Read More

Non-QM Underwriting, Settlement, QC, AI Processing Tools; Equity Products; Investor Updates

9/17/2026 10:22 AM

“My wife says I only have 2 faults. I don"t listen, and something else…” Communication matters. How many LOs wear a pin out in public that says, “Business is great!” so strangers will ask them what business they’re in? Probably not many, but maybe it is worth a try to start a conversation? (On today’s The Big Picture, Chris Whalen will be having a ...Read More

Stars Aligning, Oil Falling, Or Some of Both?

9/17/2026 9:00 AM

Heading into yesterday"s rate hike, recent evidence suggested the longer end of the bond market would appreciate a hike. There was no telling exactly how this would impact rates on Fed day itself--only that it was probably the lesser of two evils in the coming weeks. It was highly reassuring to see essentially no reaction to the rate hike in t...Read More

No, The Fed Didn"t Hike Mortgage Rates Today

9/16/2026 5:11 PM

Mortgage rates are definitely higher today--the highest since January 13th, 2025. Today"s Fed announcement had something to do with that. But while the Fed hiked the Fed Funds Rate, that had NOTHING to do with mortgage rates moving higher this afternoon. In fact, this is very easy see on a chart of bond market movement. We can use 10yr Treasuries ...Read More

Huge Volatility After Fed, But The Coming Days Will Tell The Story

9/16/2026 5:08 PM

Huge Volatility After Fed, But The Coming Days Will Tell The Story Bonds ended the day only modestly worse off than yesterday afternoon. That"s a pretty impressive accomplishment considering the Fed hiked rates and communicated at least one more rate hike in 2026. Nearly half the FOMC sees at least 2 more h...Read More

Here"s What Changed in The New Fed Announcement

9/16/2026 1:00 PM

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 12 – 3 0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain raise the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve"s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of ...Read More

Hedging, Jumbo, Processing Tools; FEMA and Disaster Updates; Richey May Sold

9/16/2026 10:49 AM

A while back I was watching the news on TV, and they were interviewing a couple whose home was threatened by a tornado, but who didn’t leave. “God will protect us,” they told the reporter as the wind picked up. Who did they think sent the tornado in the first place? Lenders and servicers know that “tornado alley” has shifted, and with it the geogra...Read More

An Uncommonly Interesting Fed Day

9/16/2026 9:24 AM

There are perhaps no other Fed announcements in recent memory worthy of more anticipation than the one we"ll get today. While some of the recent data could be used to argue patience, far more data suggests a hike. The market agrees based on recent moves in yields and Fed Funds Futures. The question remains as to whether Warsh has a firm conviction ...Read More

Some Signs of Resilience But It"s Still Anyone"s Game

9/15/2026 3:32 PM

Some Signs of Resilience But It"s Still Anyone"s Game After several consecutive business days of abject unpleasantness in the bond/mortgage market, Tuesday finally offered a modest consolation. During domestic trading hours, every attempt to push 10yr yields over 5% was met with a supportive bounce--presuma...Read More

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