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Verification Tool; Company and Training Webinars at Home; Capital Markets; Oil-Driven Inflation?

3/6/2026 9:53 AM

Officially winter ends on 3/19, as the Spring Equinox is 3/20. Most modern clocks these days auto-update when daylight savings begins/ends. So, Sunday morning I’ll be walking around my house thinking, “Wow... times have changed.” This Sunday many places will be changing their clocks and springing ahead. This will, once again, lead to the public ask...Read More

Massive Miss in NFP. So Why Aren"t Bonds Improving?

3/6/2026 8:29 AM

It"s shaping up to be a frustrating day market watchers. Decades of experience tells us that bonds should rally fairly sharply on a day where nonfarm payrolls miss the forecast by the widest margin in more than a year.  At -92k vs +59k, today fits that bill.  And like you"d expect, bonds rallied sharply right at 8:30am ET. But the rally w...Read More

Dueling Narratives Leave Yields Higher Ahead of Jobs Report

3/5/2026 2:32 PM

Dueling Narrative Leave Yields Higher Ahead of Jobs Report In the overnight session yields followed oil prices higher, but notably, Treasuries continued to sell even after oil leveled off. Then during domestic hours, it was Treasuries" turn to level off while oil prices spiked.  From 9am to 2pm, oil ro...Read More

Mortgage Rates Bounce Back Up Near Recent Highs

3/5/2026 2:02 PM

Mortgage rates bounced back up today as the underlying bond market continued the selling trend seen on 3 out of 4 days so far this week. In the overnight hours, bond yields (which generally correlate with mortgage rates) moved higher in concert with rising oil prices.  That said, it would be a mistake to assume this is the only correlation in...Read More

Wholesale, Best Ex, Verification Tools; Cybersecurity News and The Figure Incident; Capital Markets

3/5/2026 10:19 AM

Here in Park City, at the annual mortgage ski trip, some of the banter is social, and some is focused on business. On the business side of things, one topic is the nearly 1 million people impacted by hackers attacking Figure Technology Solutions, a blockchain-focused fintech lender. U.S. financial institutions are increasing cybersecurity vigilance...Read More

10yr Breaking Above 4.10% After Overnight weakness

3/5/2026 8:24 AM

The bond market has already shown an indifference to this week"s econ data as a market mover (even though we expect that to change with tomorrow"s jobs report). This morning, however, the trend continues with stronger jobless claims and a big uptick in labor costs failing to inspire a reaction. But there has been movement. A steady wave of overnigh...Read More

Mortgage Rates Move Back Down Despite Stronger Data

3/4/2026 2:31 PM

Economic data is one of the few consistent sources of motivation for interest rates in the mortgage world and beyond. In general, stronger data tends to push rates higher and vice versa. But in today"s case, that correlation didn"t pan out. The first of today"s two important economic reports was ADP Employment. It was just barely stronger than exp...Read More

AOT Execution, CRM, Advisory, Virtual Economist, Non-QM Tools; Redwood"s First Non-QM Deal

3/4/2026 10:09 AM

Credit is certainly a topic as of late, both its process and its cost, but I received this note from an industry vet in the South. “Rob, I’m tired of lenders having ‘a come apart’ over FICO’s costs. No one talks about the fact that FICO held its prices steady for over 20 years, and the 1400 percent price increase came from a base of 69 cents. I don...Read More

Calmer Start. Uneventful ADP. Waiting on ISM

3/4/2026 7:41 AM

After 2 days of much higher volatility at the open, bonds are roughly unchanged so far this morning and the overnight session was noticeably calmer. Today"s big ticket data includes ADP Employment and ISM Services. The former is already out (63k vs 50k, with a negative revision about the same size as the beat) and not moving markets. With that...Read More

Bonds Erase Most of The AM Losses

3/3/2026 3:36 PM

Bonds Erase Most of The AM Losses The bond market was visibly pulled in two directions on Tuesday. This played out in phases, with AM weakness followed by a gradual recovery. But it can also be assumed to be playing out at any given moment as bonds listen to the voices arguing in their own mind. One voice s...Read More

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