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Bonds Close Out Epic Week of Resilience With Friendly Data

2/13/2026 3:13 PM

Bonds Close Out Epic Week of Resilience With Friendly Data Friday was a logically friendly day thanks to slightly lower CPI. But no matter what happened on any of the other 4 days, this week was all about bonds ending up at much stronger levels in spite of a jobs report that should have sent rates higher on...Read More

Mortgage Rates Oh So Close to 3 Year Lows

2/13/2026 1:07 PM

When the administration announced that Fannie and Freddie would be buying mortgage-backed securities in early January, rates fell sharply to the lowest levels in more than 3 years. After a moderate rebound the following week, we"ve been holding mostly steady in a range that was 0.1-0.2 above those long-term lows. The past two days have brought eno...Read More

Not So Fast: January Existing-Home Sales Give Back December’s Gains

2/13/2026 12:54 PM

Existing-home sales pulled back sharply in January, quickly dashing any hopes that December’s year-end rebound brought, as harsh winter weather and still-tight supply conditions weighed on activity. Sales fell 8.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million, the lowest levels since November 2024. According to the National Association o...Read More

LOS, Guideline, AI Search, Non-QM Pricing Products; FSBO.com Acquired; Thoughts on Measuring Creditworthiness

2/13/2026 9:58 AM

Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders QC works as an early warning system, but it only creates value when findings are recognized, validated, and turned into action. As agency expectations continue to shift, lenders are being asked to show not just findings, but proof of a thoughtful response. Join Indecomm in March for a QC Fi...Read More

Bonds Rally, Ignoring Surge in SuperCore CPI

2/13/2026 8:55 AM

CPI came in just a hair below forecasts at the headline level and right in line with forecasts at the core level (unrounded .295 vs .300). Shelter components continued lower with Owners" Equivalent Rent at 0.220 (basically a cycle low if we ignore the low quality data collection surrounding the government shutdown). The only potential hurdle for th...Read More

Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.

2/12/2026 3:16 PM

Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months. At the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were just over 4.10%--the lowest level since December 4th, 2025.  In light of yesterday"s stronger jobs report, today"s absence of market moving data, and this week"s Treasury auction cycle, it is imp...Read More

Mortgage Rates Slide to New Multiweek Lows

2/12/2026 1:35 PM

Just one day after an incredibly strong jobs report--something that would normally create problematic upward momentum for rates--the average lender is back to the lowest levels since January 16th. At the risk of overusing a played-out metaphor, this was not on many experts" bingo cards. Even with the benefit of hindsight, it"s not entirely possibl...Read More

Non-QM Pricing, Appraisal, BI, Servicing Tools; Interview With Pennymac Chief Strategist; CFPB Update

2/12/2026 10:47 AM

Here at San Diego’s MCT Exchange 2026, the hallway chatter is varied. These are capital markets personnel, so things are pragmatic. One topic is Freddie Mac’s earnings: $2.8 billion in income for the fourth quarter of 2025 and $10.7 billion for 2025. Another is large companies becoming larger, exemplified by Tradeweb making an investment in MAXEX a...Read More

Slower Data. Slower Morning

2/12/2026 8:07 AM

When the jobs report makes a big statement, bonds are more likely to exhibit elevated momentum and volatility in the following days. In more than a few past examples, a big jobs report can set the tone for the entire month--all the way until the next jobs report comes out. Perhaps it"s the delayed release of yesterday"s report and the resulting jux...Read More

Stunning Resilience

2/11/2026 3:09 PM

Stunning Resilience One could argue that our bar is set too low if we view today"s bond market resilience as "stunning," but if that"s not the right word, it"s damn close. Last Thursday saw yields drop 8bps, largely due to a trio of labor market reports that are nowhere near as heavily traded as today"s job...Read More

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